Dustin Bradford/Getty Images. Pictured: Blake Snell.
Phillies vs. Padres Odds
| Phillies Odds | +165 |
| Padres Odds | -195 |
| Over/Under | 8.5 (+100/-120) |
| Time | 10:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB Network |
| Odds as of Thursday evening and via DraftKings. | |
As the Reds continue to sneak up on the Padres, it is officially panic time in San Diego.
On July 17, the Padres were 55-40 with a 92.3% overall chance of reaching the playoffs. Today, that number has dropped all the way down to 46.3%.
Meanwhile, things aren’t looking too bright for the Phillies either. A sweep at the hands of the Diamondbacks has them 3.5 games back of the Braves, as Atlanta has won nine of its last 10 games.
So, with both teams clawing for a playoff spot, who has the upper hand in this series? Let’s dig in and find out.
Road Problems For Philly
The Phillies are just bad on the road.
While they’re 36-25 at Citizens Bank Park this season, the Phillies are 25-34 away from Philadelphia. They’ve posted just a .312 wOBA and a 92 wRC+ on the road this season, while their road pitching staff hasn’t been picking up the slack, posting a 4.31 road FIP.
Combine all that, and it’s easy to see how the Phillies could lose three straight in Arizona.
But Thursday’s loss hurts more than usual — Zack Wheeler shoved again. He pitched deep into the seventh inning and struck out seven, but he got zero runs of support from his lineup.
Unfortunately, today’s starter gives the Phillies a much lower chance of winning:
Starting Pitcher: Matt Moore (LHP)
Matt Moore is not having a good time.
The lefty has tossed to an ERA above six and a whip approaching 1.50. In early July, he was pushed to the bullpen for a couple of appearances, before starting again against the Reds last Saturday.
No one could have seen it coming, but Moore tossed six shutout frames against the red-hot Reds. He allowed no hits and walked two while punching out eight.
Maybe we shouldn’t have expected perfection, but Moore has been due for positive regression all season. He pairs his ERA with a 5.00 xERA and 4.86 xFIP — both not great numbers, but indicators that he’s been quite unlucky.
Moore is a four-seam pitcher, but it’s his changeup that’s due for the biggest amount of regression. He’s allowed a .217 BA and a .321 wOBA on the pitch, but the expected numbers are down at .180 BA and .273 wOBA.
Maybe we’ll get a few more spectacular Moore starts in the future. And, maybe he’ll pitch well against the struggling Padres in this matchup.
Snell To Shine At Home
Over the past 30 days, what have the Padres done wrong?
In short, a bit of everything. The offense ranks just 18th in wRC+ over that span (97) while the starting pitching staff ranks 18th in FIP (4.62). The Padres have dealt with injuries to Fernando Tatis Jr., Ryan Weathers, Yu Darvish, Blake Snell and others.
Meanwhile, big trade-deadline acquisition Adam Frazier is batting just .241 with a .568 OPS since being dealt from Pittsburgh. He’s just 19-for-84 in that stretch with only three extra base hits — good for an impossibly low .291 slugging.
Surprisingly, however, the bullpen has been one of the best, with the Padres ranking third in reliever FIP (3.23) and first in reliever xFIP (3.63).
Today’s starting pitcher should give the Padres a good shot in this one, even if it’s only because he’s pitching at Petco Park.
Starting Pitcher: Blake Snell (LHP)
| Home | Away | |
| 2021 Starts | 9 | 13 |
| ERA | 2.40 | 7.01 |
| WHIP | 1.13 | 1.96 |
| Opp. SLG | .299 | .531 |
| Opp. wOBA | .256 | .410 |
Snell’s home-road splits are unlike anything I’ve ever seen.
While it could be considered an anomaly earlier in the season, this is a significant long-term trend that needs addressing. Why does Snell perform so much better at home?
I won’t try and analyze why — other than guessing that he just likes his own bed — but it’s a trend I’m willing to bet. The Padres are 7-2 in Snell’s starts at home while being 4-9 in his starts on the road.
His four-seam fastball is moving as fast as ever (95.1 mph on average), but is getting slammed (.512 xSLG, .388 xwOBA). Meanwhile, his slider has been his best pitch, producing just a .163 BA and a .260 SLG against.
Phillies-Padres Pick
I think we’re in for a tough-fought, low-scoring battle.
Snell is running through batters at Petco Park this season, and while the Phillies’ road numbers have gone up a tad recently, I’m not bullish on their bats after the Arizona series.
Meanwhile, I’m hopeful that Moore will enter this game confident and try to string together a couple quality starts. I think he’s got a good matchup, the Padres have posted the seventh-worst OPS (.687) and the fifth-worst wRC+ (88) in MLB over the last 30 days.
All-in-all, I’m bullish on the starting pitchers and low on the offenses. Therefore, I’m playing the under 8.5, which I like down to -110.
Pick: Under 8.5 (+100 | Play to -110)
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