G Fiume/Getty Images. Pictured: Jacob deGrom
Phillies vs. Mets Odds
| Phillies Odds | +220 |
| Mets Odds | -275 |
| Over/Under | 6.5 (-115/-105) |
| Time | 4:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
| Odds as of Saturday morning and via BetMGM. | |
Every time Jacob deGrom is pitching, it’s must-watch TV. It reminds me of Steph Curry hot streaks and Tom Brady fourth quarter comebacks — just get to the nearest screen and stare in awe.
As deGrom prepares to slice through the Phillies on Saturday, let’s prepare to get some action on this game.
Phillies Need Strong Pitching To Survive
The NL East is a slog. While the Mets are clearly the class of the division, the Phillies, Nationals and Braves are all within one game of each other. The whole season has been a series of low-scoring games with everyone beating up on each other.
Friday was no different. The Phillies split their doubleheader with the Mets, with both games ending with a 2-1 score. Aaron Nola pitched a gem in the game one loss, even tying the MLB record for consecutive strikeouts (10), and Matt Moore pitched five scoreless in the game two win.
Either way, the story is the same — the Phillies cannot get it together on the road. After Friday’s contests, the Phillies are now 13-24 away from Citizens Bank this season.
Starting pitcher: Zach Eflin (RHP)
The Phillies won three of Eflin’s first four outings in 2021. He went at least six innings in each game and posted a 2.77 ERA.
Since then, it’s been an unmitigated nightmare. The Phillies are 2-8 in his last 10 starts, and he’s posted a 5.12 ERA while allowing a batting average against over .300.
However, Eflin is probably due for some positive regression. His BABIP is all the way up at .371 during that stretch, and he’s posted a 64:8 K:BB ratio in those 58 innings. A guy striking out that many batters while walking that few can’t stay down forever.
Hopefully for the Phillies, Eflin will allow a few less runs (10 in his last 10 starts) and he’ll start throwing his slider better (.667 SLG, .425 wOBA on the pitch).
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Mets Are Class Of Division Despite Injuries
The NL East is a slog. But currently, the Mets are kings of the slog.
Despite a myriad of injuries, the Mets continue to win games and are currently four games up in the division. As mentioned, the NL East has featured a series of low-scoring, high-leverage games. The Mets have done well in those situations, specifically at Citi Field.
The Mets are 23-8-1 to the under at home this season while sporting a 23-9 home record. The Mets are allowing an absurdly low 2.13 runs per game at home this season, by far the best mark in MLB.
The pitching has been extraordinary, as the starting rotation leads the league in FIP (3.10), and the bullpen ranks seventh in that stat (3.68). The Mets are also fourth in the NL in defensive runs saved (29).
While the offense is still fairly ineffective, it’s begun to come around. Take Francisco Lindor, for example, who has hit .256 with an .844 OPS since those numbers dropped to .182/.555 on May 27.
Starting pitcher: Jacob deGrom (RHP)
There isn’t anything I can write about deGrom that you haven’t heard before. He’s the most dominant pitcher since peak Pedro Martinez and is on pace to have arguably the greatest season by a starting pitcher of all time.
So, instead of talking about deGrom’s pitching, I want to quickly speak about the support staff.
The Mets’ run support in deGrom starts has become a bit of a meme in recent years. We were on track for the same thing in 2021, as the Mets lost both of deGrom’s first starts despite him allowing just one earned run in 14 combined innings.
However, the Mets are 9-1 in deGrom’s last 10 starts. They’ve won seven straight deGrom starts while scoring an average of 4.3 runs per game. All of a sudden, deGrom’s dominance has started to mean something in New York.
It’s worth mentioning that deGrom is battling a series of injuries at the moment. Considering the Mets are banged up as it is, deGrom getting seriously hurt would be the worst-case scenario for the Mets.
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— Tanner McGrath (@tannerstruth) June 21, 2021
Phillies-Mets Pick
Eflin is certainly due for some positive regression, but he has a number of question marks.
Meanwhile, deGrom has none. He hasn’t allowed a run in five straight starts, and I fully expect him to dominate the Phillies again like he did back on April 5 (6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 7 K).
I am fairly confident that deGrom is going to pitch between five and six shutout innings. Additionally, I am confident enough that the Mets’ offense, which has provided decent run support for deGrom recently, will score at some point in those frames. Especially against a pitcher like Eflin.
Therefore, my best bet for this game is the Mets first five spread, which you can grab at -160 on BetMGM.
Given deGrom’s absurd dominance this season, it’s often hard to find value in his starts. But I believe this bet is profitable, and either way, it’s worth betting just to watch deGrom pitch.
Pick: Mets F5 -0.5 (-160)
