Michael Owens/Getty Images. Pictured: Kris Bryant.
Phillies vs. Cubs Odds
| Phillies Odds | +125 |
| Cubs Odds | -143 |
| Over/Under | 11 (-117 / -105) |
| Time | 8:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
| Odds as of Monday morning and via DraftKings. | |
The Cubs will finally return to Chicago after a long and painful 10-day road trip. They have lost nine straight games and are coming off back-to-back sweeps by division opponents to fall to 42-42 on the season.
Philadelphia took two games out of three against the Padres but remains below .500 and in fourth place in the NL East. The Phillies will finish the first half of the season with a seven-game road trip, beginning with four games against the Cubs at Wrigley Field.
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Phillies Stars Aren’t Shining
Matt Moore, the 32-year old left-hander, started the year as the Phillies’ fifth starter, but after three outings and a 9.82 ERA, he was regulated to the bullpen.
Moore made six appearances out of the bullpen, allowing three earned runs over 7.1 innings. He made his first start since April on June 25 and allowed just three hits and no runs in five innings against the Mets.
Like Chicago’s Zach Davies, Moore has very little strikeout upside, posting just a 7.33 K/9 rate. He ranks in the bottom 10% of the league in xERA and xwOBA.
The Phillies’ offense has struggled to maintain consistency all season. They rank 23rd in scoring, 16th in batting average and 17th in OPS.
Philly has a solid lineup, but its stars of JT Realmuto, Bryce Harper and Rhys Hoskins are all having down seasons.
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Cubs Have Gone Cold
The Cubs will start Davies (RHP) on Monday, and he is hanging on for dear life for the impending negative regression coming. In 17 starts this season, Davies has a 4.32 ERA, but his expected ERA is 6.20.
In his last 12 starts, Davies has allowed one run or fewer in eight of them. Yet, all of his expected numbers are terrible. He has allowed a .243 batting average and .320 wOBA but a .294 xBA and .377 xwOBA.
Davies has just a 5.94 K/9 and ranks in the bottom 5% of the league in strikeout rate. He also sits in the bottom 5% of the league in xBA, xwOBA and xERA. He’s really struggled with his control, allowing at least two walks in eight straight games.
On the other side, Chicago’s offense has been ice-cold lately. The Cubbies rank 29th in batting average and 28th in OPS over the last two weeks. They’ve scored just 33 runs in that span, the lowest in the league.
All-Star selection Kris Bryant was off to an MVP-level start to the season but has since cooled off. He hit just .171 during the month of June, and the Cubs desperately need him to get going again.
Phillies-Cubs Pick
It’s always scary backing a team that has lost nine straight games, but the Cubs should stop the bleeding in Chicago tonight.
The Cubs are 26-13 inside the Friendly Confines and average over a run per game more at home versus on the road. The Phillies, meanwhile, really struggle on the road and are just 15-26 away from Philadelphia.
Moore is 0-2 with a 6.00 ERA against the Cubs in his career, and Chicago is much better against left-handed pitchers. While Davies has struggled too, the Phillies are much worse against righties
The biggest mismatch here is going to come in the later innings. The Cubs have one of the best bullpens in the league, ranking second in bullpen ERA. The Phillies bullpen has somehow been worse than it was last season. They rank 25th in reliever ERA and lead the league with 22 blown saves.
I like the Cubs to end the slide back at home and would play them at -145 or better.
Pick: Chicago Cubs ML -143 (Play -145 or better)
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