Ralph Freso/getty Images. Pictured: Arizona Diamondbacks starting pitcher Luke Weaver.
Padres vs. Diamondbacks Odds
| Padres Odds | -235 |
| Diamondbacks Odds | +190 |
| Over/Under | 8.5 |
| Time | 3:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
| Odds as of Wednesday morning via DraftKings. | |
It is almost unfathomable that the San Diego Padres are in jeopardy of missing the playoffs. After entering the season with the third-best odds to win the World Series after loading up their pitching staff, the Padres currently sit on the outside looking in of the final wild card spot.
The Padres have gone just 22-28 since July 1 and went just 10-15 in August. Despite Arizona having the worst record in the National League this season, they actually have more wins than San Diego this month, going 11-17.
Despite all their struggles, the Diamondbacks have more win against the Padres this year than any other team.
The Padres have a brutal schedule down the stretch, playing 22 of their 28 remaining games against Houston, San Francisco, Atlanta and the Dodgers. They need to figure things out quickly and get as many wins against Arizona as possible.
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San Diego’s Darvish Hoping for Better Fortune
Like many of the struggling Padres, what started as a fantastic first season in San Diego, has been tough sledding recently for Yu Darvish (RHP). Through the first three months of the season, Darvish was 7-2 with a 2.44 ERA. Teams were batting just .193 against him.
However, things have gone much worse over the last two months. Darvish is 0-6 with a 6.97 ERA and teams are batting .257 against him. He has a 2.61 HR/9 rate and has allowed a home run in eight straight starts.
Usually his most dominant pitch, Darvish has struggled with his cutter this season. Teams are batting .328 against in this season, which is a problem for his most thrown pitch. However his slider, fastball, sinker, and curveball have all been really good.
Much like the Padres pitching staff, the offense needs to figure things out quickly. Over the last month, San Diego ranks 25th in wOBA and wRC+. Only three teams in the league have scored fewer runs in the last 30 days.
Despite being the National League MVP front runner, Fernando Tatis is batting just .228 over the last month. In addition to Tatis, Jake Cronenworth is batting .226, Manny Machado is hitting .231 and deadline acquisition Adam Frazier is at just .241.
Weaver Making Return for Arizona After Layoff
Former first-round pick Luke Weaver will make his first start since his May 16 outing. Weaver was removed from that game after just four innings with right shoulder discomfort and was later put on the 60-day injured list with a subscapularis strain in his rotator cuff.
Acquired in a trade from St. Louis for Paul Goldschmidt, Weaver was terrific in his first year in Arizona posting a 2.94 ERA. Then he really struggled to a 6.58 ERA in the shortened 2020 season. This year he has made eight starts this year and holds a 4.50 ERA.
As one of the worst teams in the league, the Arizona offense has been dreadful for most of the season. They rank 25th in wOBA and 27th in wRC+ this year. However, over the last two weeks they have been slightly less than terrible, ranking 17th in wOBA and 19th in wRC+ over the last two weeks.
The main bright spot in the Snakes lineup is centerfielder Ketel Marte. He has played just 64 games all season due to injuries, but is batting .339 when he has been in the lineup. Him and David Peralta have been terrific over the last two weeks.
Padres-Diamondbacks Pick
In four meetings against Arizona this year, Darvish has a 5.31 ERA. He has allowed 12 runs in 20 innings and recently had his shortest outing of the season against them, getting pulled in the third innings after allowing five runs.
While the sample size is small this season, Weaver was terrific in his home starts early this year. In four games, he went 2-0 with a 1.27 ERA, holding opponents scoreless in three of his four outings.
The Arizona offense has actually been better than San Diego’s over the last month, and is even better when at home. They rank 12th in wOBA at home over the last month.
The biggest mismatch in this game will be between the bullpens. The Padres relievers rank third in bullpen ERA this season, while the Diamondback relievers sit down at 29th overall.
Instead of dealing with the bullpens, I will back Arizona at +1 at in the First Five innings at -110 odds.
Pick: Arizona First Five Innings +1 (-110)
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