Denis Poroy/Getty Images. Pictured: Corbin Burnes.
Padres vs. Brewers Odds
| Padres Odds | +108 |
| Brewers Odds | -116 |
| Over/Under | 7 |
| Time | 7:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
| Odds as of Monday and via PointsBet. | |
One team is in the thick of what is setting up to be a tight divisional race, while the other is the Milwaukee Brewers.
The two clubs have dealt with an unfortunate amount of injuries and COVID-19 concerns, but it has become clear that the Padres are built for the long haul, while the Brewers are scraping any win possible to stay close in a down NL Central.
Both teams have also enjoyed success from their pitching staffs. Joe Musgrove and Corbin Burnes have taken different routes to get where they are heading into Tuesday, but it is clear whomever pitches better gives their team a distinct advantage.
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Padres are a Juggernaut but Musgrove has Regressed
The brutal March/April swing for the Padres feels like a dream with San Diego in first place heading into Monday’s night games. While the pitching staff has kept the Padres afloat, the offense has turned the corner despite injuries and COVID-19 hitting their lineup. San Diego is top 10 in Offensive WAR and is one of eight teams with an above-average Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) against right-handed pitchers on the road.
The Padres are top 10 in average, slugging, OBP, OPS and walk rate away from home. The offense is also the second-most difficult to strike out, and their BABIP is acceptable (.282) on the road against righties. Teams that have offense and defense that translates home and away are difficult to bet against.
Joe Musgrove has taken a step back from his electric start to 2021. His ERA is 2.84 runs higher in May than March/April. Musgrove has been consistent regardless of the month in home/road splits, and his Expected Fielder Independent Pitching (xFIP) is the same as his 2.47 ERA. His Expected ERA (xERA) and BABIP lead to expected regression, but the Brewers have done little to intimidate pitchers. A heavier diet of sliders and cutters has been key to his success in San Diego.
Brewers are the Definition of Anemic Offense
In a historically bad year for offense, the Milwaukee Brewers are in the team picture for worst offenses in recent history. The Brewers have the second-worst Offensive WAR in baseball (-38.8) and are bottom half in BsR, FanGraphs’ baserunning metric.
Home cooking is not what cures their ailments either. Milwaukee has the lowest home wRC+ against righties and are bottom five in average, slugging, OBP, OPS, ISO, BABIP and Weighted Runs Above Average (wRAA). Outside of major BABIP regression, the Brewers have little to hope for on offense.
A healthy Christian Yelich and a rejuvenated Keston Hiura from a trip to the minors could be the difference between the offense becoming at least league average and becoming the worst offense not named Colorado.
It has been a treat to watch the emergence of Corbin Burnes and the rest of the Brewers pitching staff. It is also crazy to imagine Burnes’ peripherals being better than his 1.79 ERA. His walk and home run rates are below his career averages, but the 26-year old only has 187 MLB innings to his name.
Burnes has been better on the road than at home, but a 2.42 ERA and opponent slash line of .164/.211/.239 at home is fine by me. Similar to Musgrove, the cutter has been part of his success. His cutter usage is up 22.2% from 2020, and Burnes added 2 mph (95.6 mph) to it. It is one of the best pitches in the majors. It is also important that he has it working early. Like majority of pitchers, Burnes fades some as he gets through the second and third time in the batting order. That is more of an issue against the Padres then say, the Brewers.
Padres-Brewers Pick
I hope Burnes can log a no-decision and not a loss. The support at home is not ideal for any Brewers starter with the team going 10-12 at home. Despite a heavy home schedule as we close out May, the Padres are 12-7 away from Petco.
I like the Padres at plus money on the road. Besides having the better record and playing well on the road, the Padres are clearly the better team with their better players playing better baseball. Padres Moneyline is already dropping on PointsBet, but is still at +104. San Diego is beating the teams they are supposed to, and Tuesday will be no different.
Pick: Padres ML (Bet to -120)
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