Brace Hemmelgarn/Minnesota Twins/Getty Images. Pictured: Brandon Woodruff
Padres vs. Brewers Odds
| Padres Odds | -105 |
| Brewers Odds | -115 |
| Over/Under | 7 |
| Time | Monday, 7:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | BSWI |
| Odds as of Monday and via BetMGM | |
The San Diego Padres have used a nine-game winning streak to vault themselves into first place in the National League West. They now lead the Dodgers by one game in the division and the Giants by two games. The Padres have won 12 of 13, with the only blip being the second game of a doubleheader on May 12 against the Rockies.
While the Padres certainly deserve plenty of plaudits for this recent run, the schedule did break kindly for them, with nine of their last 13 games coming against the Rockies and the Mariners, who are a combined 15 games under .500.
San Diego is averaging a whopping 7.3 runs per game during its current win streak. However, it’s unlikely to be as fortunate against Brandon Woodruff and the Milwaukee Brewers on Monday night. Woodruff has been very stingy with the runs he’s allowed this season.
He’ll be opposed by Blake Snell, who has a 3.60 ERA in his last six starts for the Padres.
Given the quality of the starting pitchers on the mound, this could set up as a classic pitchers’ duel with runs being premium for both teams.
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San Diego Padres
Snell has allowed just eight earned runs in his four May starts. He registered a quality start his last time out with six innings of one-run ball against the Rockies. That was the first time this season that he completed six innings, and San Diego will hope he does it again against a Milwaukee team that’s averaged just 1.5 runs in its last six home games.
There’s no question that Snell’s last start was his best outing of the season. He struck out 11 and allowed just one walk, both of which were his best marks of the season. The walks have been an issue for Snell this season, as evidenced by his 5.58 BB/9 ratio. That’s why he’s only been able to average around 4 1/3 innings per game.
However, Snell’s 13.39 K/9 ratio is elite, and his 3.79 FIP doesn’t point to any sign of regression at this time for the former American League Cy Young Award winner.
Although this will be Snell’s first start against the Brewers, he has faced seven hitters in their lineup during his time with the Tampa Bay Rays. In 39 at-bats, those Milwaukee hitters have a .231/.333/.333 slash line against him.
Snell is yet to allow a home run against any of those players and has limited them to a .103 ISO, which is well below the league average of .158.
Milwaukee Brewers
Woodruff has been one of my favorite pitchers to watch over the last four years. The five-year veteran is 21-13 in his career with a 3.31 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. This season, he’s off to a fine start as he’s 2-2 with a 1.58 ERA and 0.74 WHIP.
Woodruff’s last eight outings have all been quality starts, and he’d probably have an even better record if he got some run support from Milwaukee’s sputtering offense. I’ll touch on that a bit later, but I’m not yet finished with extolling his virtues.
The Mississippi native boasts a 10.61 K/9 ratio and a 7.5% HR/FB rate. Batters are hitting .143 against him and even when they manage to put the ball in play, they’re only hitting .195.
I waxed poetically about Woodruff’s pitch arsenal in an earlier preview, a lineup of pitches that sets him apart from so many other pitchers in the league. Rather than regurgitating that thought process, I prefer to expand on his situational pitching.
Take a look at his slash line when the bases are empty, with a runner on first base, and with men in scoring position:
- When the bases are empty: .127/.209/.201.
- With a runner on first base: .186/.222/.220.
- With men in scoring position: .115/.143/.115.
You often hear about pitchers being vulnerable the second time or third time through a batting order. Well, Woodruff is one of those exceptions. Batters only have a .183 average against him with a .217 wOBA his second time through the order, and they’re hitting .149 with a .202 wOBA his third time through.
Padres-Brewers Pick
Two quality pitchers on the mound give us a chance for an old-fashioned duel on Monday night. Facing Woodruff would be a step up in class for San Diego, given the opposing starters it has faced on this current winning streak.
If you think Woodruff can’t shut down this San Diego lineup, think again. He’s started three games against the Padres, and they managed just six runs in those contests and only two in the last two outings.
San Diego’s current lineup has 41 at-bats against him with a .195/.283/.268 line and a .073 ISO.
I also expect Snell and the Padres to frustrate a Milwaukee lineup that’s 28th with a wRC+ value of 82.
To sum it up, I like this game to finish under the total. And when Woodruff is involved in a game, that tends to happen more often than not.
This season, the total is 7-2 to the under (+4.38 units) in his nine starts.
Over the last two seasons, the total is 17-4-1 to the under with him as a starting pitcher. That’s an 81% hit ratio for +11.71 units.
The total for this game is listed at seven, but I’ll buy it up to 7.5 at BetMGM to avoid even a push.
Pick: Under 7.5 (-135)
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