Gregory Shamus/Getty Images. Pictured: Packers RB Aaron Jones
Packers vs. Lions Odds & Picks
| Pick |
|---|
| Packers -11.5 vs. Lions |
| Over 48.5 Points |
Packers -11.5
Raheem Palmer: Aaron Rodgers is coming off one of the worst performances of his career, completing only 30% of his passes for 133 yards with two interceptions.
Although many people will overreact to that loss and the turmoil that this Packers organization faced over the offseason with Rodgers wanting to leave, I see it as an outlier. The offense, which ranked 31st in Expected Points Added in Week 1, should easily bounce against a Lions defense that gave up 41 points and 442 yards to the 49ers in the season opener, including 8 yards per play and a whopping 11.5 yards per pass.
If the Lions didn’t struggle enough in Week 1, things got worse this week as they lost second-year cornerback Jeff Okudah for the season to an Achilles injury. This unit doesn’t have a ton of depth at corner and will be relying on rookies and replacement-level players to deal with an offense featuring Devante Adams.
Overall, the Packers are in a prime bounce-back spot. And based on their history, they should be fine considering they’re 26-13-1 (66.7%) against the spread (ATS) following a loss with Rodgers at QB, a spot in which he’s 26-13-1 ATS:
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Over 48.5
Sean Koerner: Rodgers had his worst game as a pro against the Saints in a 38-3 beat down in Week 1. Look for him to take out his frustration on the Lions in front of the whole country on Monday Night Football.
Like Raheem said above, Okudah suffered a season-ending Achilles injury, which makes the Lions’ inferior secondary that much worse.
Meanwhile, the Packers defense was also to blame for last week’s embarrassing loss, and the issues on that side of the ball may carry over into Week 2. To make matters worse, Za’Darius Smith was placed on IR due to a back injury. It’s a massive loss for a defense that was already ailing at full strength.
The Lions’ offense thrived in garbage time last week against the 49ers. I can see them doing so again here.
I’m projecting this total closer to 50 points and would bet the over up to 49.
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