Stephen Gosling/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Domantas Sabonis.
Pacers vs. Hornets Odds
| Pacers Odds | -3.5 |
| Hornets Odds | +3.5 |
| Moneyline | -143 / +120 |
| Over/Under | 227 |
| Time | 6:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | TNT |
| Odds as of Tuesday morning and via FanDuel. | |
It’s been tough to get a handle on the Pacers down the final stretch of the regular season.
Indiana is holding things together with bobby pins and duct tape at this point. Domantas Sabonis missed the back half of April. Malcolm Brogdon hasn’t played in May. Myles Turner remains sidelined indefinitely, and T.J. Warren never really got going this season.
This is the postseason, though, and you have to figure anyone who can give it a go will play in an elimination game. With the play-in format, it’s now-or-never for the Pacers. Lose tonight, and these guys will have all offseason to rest.
Warren and Turner are out, but Sabonis and Brogdon are listed as questionable. Sabonis has a quad contusion — a bruise, essentially — and he’s been a monster down the stretch and will surely go.
But the key decision here is Brogdon, who looks like a potential game-time decision. Remember, Brogdon hasn’t played at all in 10 May games, but he did practice Monday and looked good, and we at the Action Network project more of a 60-40 chance of seeing Brogdon on the court.
You never know how a hamstring holds up, but if Brogdon does play, then Indiana’s usage changes dramatically for many key players.
That sets up perfectly for a single game parlay based entirely on Brogdon playing and taking on a relatively typical load, which would mean 30-plus minutes, a team-leading 17.5 field goal attempts per game, and around 21 points and six dimes.
Be sure to watch the injury news, but you will have to act fast, and you might just need to take a shot. If Brogdon looks likely to go, these are the three props I’m parlaying for a “Fade the Other Pacers If Brogdon Plays SGP.”
Domantas Sabonis, Under 7.5 Assists (+118, FanDuel)
The Sabonis assists under is the top prop play on our entire board for the opening night of the NBA postseason.
And, frankly, if you’ve been watching Sabonis this month, that seems absolutely crazy. Russell Westbrook wasn’t the only triple-double machine down the stretch of the season. Sabonis averaged 23.0 points, 14.1 rebounds, and 10.7 assists per game during the month of May.
Though all the numbers are terrific, it’s the assists that really took a leap in May. Sabonis had only five dimes in the regular-season finale but went over 7.5 assists every other game of the month. Like his father, Arvydas, Domantas is a brilliant passer out of the post, and he can really rack up some nice assists.
But a huge part of the reason those assist numbers were so high was that Brogdon was missing. Remember, Brogdon didn’t play once during May, so if he does suit up, those Sabonis May numbers are basically irrelevant. Instead, check out his stats from post-All Star Break outside of those 10 May games: 18.3 points, 12.8 rebounds, and 4.9 assists in 14 games.
Goodbye, double-digit assists. Those certainly aren’t bad numbers, but Sabonis’s assist total drops by more than half, and he went under 7.5 dimes in 13 of those 14 games, hitting the under 93% of the time. He’s under 7.5 assists in 39-of-53 games before May, hitting the under 74% of the rest of the season.
We project Sabonis at 5.3 assists if Brogdon plays, and that gives this a massive 37% edge in our favor with the plus juice. This is a must-play start to our single game parlay if we’re building it around Brogdon being out there. I’d play Sabonis to go under 7.5 all the way to -175.
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Doug McDermott, Under 14.5 Points (-112, FanDuel)
Dougie McBuckets has been big down the stretch for the Pacers.
McDermott started all 10 Indiana games in May and had double-digit points in all of them. He averaged 16.6 points per game on 11.6 field goal attempts, and it’s not just hitting 3s. He’s become one of the league’s better cutters, too, and he hit 19 points in four of those games and even scored 31 to kick off the season.
But, again, those numbers may not be relevant if Brogdon starts and plays his usual minutes. McDermott isn’t just going to disappear, but take a look at how McDermott looked after the All-Star Break before the calendar turned to May and sidelined Brogdon: 13.0 points, 3.0 rebounds, and 1.4 assist per game.
And that was over 22 games too, so it’s not a small sample. McDermott averaged just 21.5 minutes per game and came off the bench in most of them, and his field-goal attempts were down to 9.3 per game.
As good as McDermott was in May at times, the playoffs are another animal, and the Pacers will need to maximize their time with more rounded two-way players. Our Props Tool is fading McDermott’s points, rebounds, and assists because of his likely minutes drop, but most single game parlays only allow bettors to play one stat at a time, so we’ll stick with points.
During those 22 post-ASB games before May, McDermott went under 14.5 points in 14 of them, hitting our under 64% of the time, and he had only four games in that stretch in which he was over by more than one shot. We project him at 10.4 points, so I’ll fade him here to -140.
Caris LeVert, Under 6.5 Assists (-110, FanDuel)
LeVert is our last angle, and you can pretty much guess how this one plays out by now.
With Brogdon out, LeVert has become Indiana’s second handler next to Sabonis. Indiana has barely even had NBA bodies to play at guard and on the wing at times this month. But that changes if Brogdon plays, and the Pacers may also get minutes from Aaron Holiday and/or Edmond Sumner, both of whom also practiced on Monday.
All of that means fewer touches for LeVert, and it pushes him into more of a secondary or even tertiary role in this offense. Think of it this way: if Sabonis gets five or six assists and Brogdon gets five or six himself, how likely is it that LeVert also has five or six dimes, let alone seven to hit this over?
LeVert really got his passing juices flowing over the final couple of weeks of the season. He averaged 8.8 assists along with 25.2 points per game in his final six outings. But throw those numbers aside if Brogdon plays.
Check out LeVert’s other 29 games as a Pacer: 19.8 points and 4.1 assists per game while going under 6.5 assists in all but two of those games. That’s under 6.5 dimes in 93% of his appearances until these last couple of weeks.
Even if Brogdon starts, there’s no guarantee that hamstring holds up. That thing could pop a minute in, and if it does, so our single game parlay hopes will probably pop too. But if the President plays tough, this SGP is in our favor.
We project LeVert at 5.0 assists, so I’ll add this last under as high as -135. Let’s hope Brogdon stays on the court and gives us a chance.
