Rich Schultz/Getty Images. Pictured: Aaron Judge
Orioles vs. Yankees Odds
| Orioles Odds | +220 |
| Yankees Odds | -275 |
| Over/Under | 9.5 |
| Time | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB Network |
| Odds as of Monday and via DraftKings. | |
Sometimes, the stars align if just for one night. That does not appears to be the case Tuesday when the Baltimore Orioles and New York Yankees square off for Game 2 of their series in the Bronx.
An inconsistent Yankees offense was shored up prior to the trade deadline but will be without Gerrit Cole for up to two starts. The Orioles did little as sellers but continued their solid play against left-handed pitching Monday, topping Andrew Heaney and the Yanks 7-1.
The books continue to make you pay for the Yankees, so is there a way to bet on either team and do so without a lot of juice?
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Not Much Going Right for Orioles
Alexander Wells gets his third career start — all on the road — with this being his first against the Yankees. Early returns have not been good for the 24-year old southpaw because he has allowed seven earned runs (three home runs) in 10 2/3 innings (5.91 ERA).
It does not get better for Wells against the Bronx Bombers. The additions of Anthony Rizzo and Joey Gallo only improves an offense that has a top-10 wRC+ against left-handed pitching at home. The new lefty power hitters also do damage against same-handed pitchers. Rizzo is a true reverse-splits hitter (.356 average vs LHP, 9:10 K/BB Ratio) while Gallo is hitting 30 points higher and slugging 29 points better against lefties.
The Orioles’ offense has issues against right-handed pitching on the road. The offense is bottom three in average, slugging, OPS, Weighted Runs Above Average (wRAA), wRC+, and home run-to-fly ball ratio. They also have the worst OBP and hard-hit percentage.
Baltimore has to hope Monday’s convincing win and avoiding Cole can lead to consecutive wins in New York.
Yankees Have to Make Adjustment
Nestor Cortes is expected to start for the Yankees on Tuesday in place of Cole. The 26-year old has been excellent in a do-it-all role that has led to a 1.93 ERA and 2.40 xERA. He will strike out batters and has been great at limiting the long ball, but also depends on the flyball for outs. His 31.2% groundball rate is the lowest of his career (five starts, 53 career appearances) over four seasons.
Cortes has what it takes to limit the Orioles offense. He is coming off a five-inning outing against the Tampa Bay Rays where he limited the offense to one run over five-plus innings, striking out five. Short notice is usually a difficult way to prepare for a start, but Cortes has shown he can step up.
Back to the Yankees offense: Only the Angels have a better HR/FB ratio against righties at home. Their 10.6% walk rate at home also works against Wells, who walks 5.29 batters per nine innings.
Orioles-Yankees Pick
At one point the Yankees opened as -475 favorites before that was bet down considerably. At -275 now there is little reason to consider the Bronx Bombers as they continue to Jekyll/Hyde offensively.
The Orioles have a chance to sour the first series after the Yankees bolstered their offense but have to buck a season-long trend of struggling on the road versus right-handed pitching.
Even with the Yankees having the second-best bullpen according to WAR, three relievers were used — two for multiple innings — to get through Monday’s outing. The ball will fly Tuesday and the weather looks to be perfect for baseball. With books leaving the run total at -110 either way, it comes down to believing in the Yankees offense to pick up the team after a difficult series opener.
Pick: Over 9.5 (-110, bet to -130)
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