Will Newton/Getty Images. Pictured: Cedric Mullins
Orioles vs. Yankees Odds
| Orioles Odds | +200 |
| Yankees Odds | -250 |
| Over/Under | 10 (-115/-105) |
| Time | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
| Odds as of Monday morning and via DraftKings. | |
As they attempt to make up ground on the Red Sox and Rays, the Yankees bought heavily at the deadline. One of those acquisitions includes today’s starter — Andrew Heaney.
The Yankees have already picked up a few games in the divisional race — they’re now just 6.5 games back of first place — but they still have plenty of work to do. Luckily, they’ll play the only “bad” team in the AL East in this series.
And, in this series opener, the new-look Yankees offense gets to face one of the worst starters in baseball – Jorge López.
However, are the Yankees worth backing as more than 2-to-1 favorites? Or, do the Orioles present any value at huge plus-money?
Let’s dig in.
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Finding Some Positives in Baltimore
Baltimore is now 30 games under .500 and 21.5 games back of first place. However, there are a lot of positives to be taken from the O’s season.
First: the O’s offense against lefties. Baltimore’s lineup has posted just a .699 OPS and a 92 wRC+ this season. However, against southpaws, those numbers jump to .763 and 109. The O’s have been a top-10 offense against lefties all season, and that’s a hopeful sign for the future.
Second: Cedric Mullins. In his first All-Star season, Mullins is showing a penchant for hitting. Just look at this spray chart:
Mullins makes contact on 83% of swings in the zone and 65% out of the zone, and he smacks the ball all over the park doing so. Plus, he can really hit a breaking ball, posting a .367 BA and a .679 SLG on the slider this year.
Mullins is batting .321 this season while being second in the league in hits (125) and fifth in doubles (28). He’s just 26-years-old, so watch out for his bat over the next few seasons.
Third: John Means. Means has dealt with injuries this season, and has been inconsistent as a result. However, he’s still posted a season-long ERA under 3.00 and a WHIP under 0.90. At one point this season, Means had the sixth-lowest odds to win the AL Cy Young, and I’m predicting he’ll perform similarly well in the years to come.
Sadly, Baltimore has a much-less promising arm on the mound today:
Starting Pitcher: Jorge López (RHP)
López is a bad pitcher who’s forced to start for a bad team. As such, López has posted just a 2-12 record this season while the Orioles are 7-14 in his starts.
He’s got a live sinker and fastball — both pitches are consistently in the high 90s — but given he’s in just the third percentile among pitchers in fastball spin rate (~1950 between both pitches), opponents have been smashing them:
| Pitch Type | BA | SLG |
|---|---|---|
| Sinker | .312 | .487 |
| Four-Seamer | .274 | .560 |
The rest of his arsenal (curveball, changeup, slider) has performed similarly poorly. Plus, he’s had trouble with controlling all of his pitches, as he’s walking more than four batters per nine innings.
As a result, López has posted a 6.19 ERA and a 1.68 WHIP this season.
However, his .357 BABIP and 4.39 xFIP do indicate some level of positive regression. So, perhaps not all is lost for the 28-year-old righty.
New Acquisitions Take the Stage for New York
Since they lost three of four to the Red Sox at Fenway, the Yankees won a series against the Rays and swept the Marlins. Plus, this recent surge has New York just 2.5 games back of the second wild card spot.
Now, after adding Joey Gallo and Anthony Rizzo, the Yankees have all the momentum on their side.
So, outside of the obvious, how do Gallo and Rizzo help the Yankees’ offense?
Simply put: They are left-handed. The Yankees have the second-fewest lefty plate appearances in baseball, and they’ve posted the third-worst wOBA on those appearances (.286). That’s a huge problem considering the short porch at Yankee Stadium.
But, that shouldn’t be an issue anymore:
2 games, 2 homers for @ARizzo44 as a Yankee. 😱 pic.twitter.com/w6rR7zUZFY
— MLB (@MLB) August 1, 2021
Starting Pitcher: Andrew Heaney (LHP)
The Yankees’ more confusing deadline move was acquiring Heaney.
The Yankees were slightly weak in the rotation, but does Heaney’s below-average fastball and 5.27 ERA help much?
The most important thing Heaney can do is be an innings-eater. Following the trade, Heaney is just the fifth Yankee pitcher to face more than 400 batters this season, creating a “true” starting rotation.
Moreover, Heaney just needs to pitch moderately well, as the Yankees’ new-look offense should pick up the slack.
Orioles-Yankees Pick
Heaney has been pitching behind a good offense all season. The Angels have destroyed the ball this season, even without Trout. So, it’s easy to see how Heaney’s been the most profitable over starter in MLB this season:
Today, he faces Mullins and an Orioles offense that, as I mentioned, loves to hit lefties.
Meanwhile, López has had three starts against the Bronx Bombers this season, and he’s allowed 10 earned in just 10 2/3 innings.
Therefore, I think we’re in for another Heaney high-scoring affair. The sharps agree, as sharp money has pushed this total up from 9.5 to 10, where I’m going to play the over at -110 or better.
Pick: Over 10 (-105 | Play to -110)
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