Adam Hunger/Getty Images. Pictured: Gerrit Cole.
Orioles vs. Yankees Odds
| Orioles Odds | +250 |
| Yankees Odds | -320 |
| Over/Under | 8.5 |
| Time | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB Network |
| Odds as of Monday and via DraftKings. | |
Sometimes, the stars align if just for one night. That appears to be the case Tuesday when the Baltimore Orioles and New York Yankees square off for Game 2 of their series in the Bronx.
An inconsistent Yankees offense was shored up prior to the trade deadline while the Orioles did little as sellers. Needless to say, what you see is what you get with Baltimore.
The books continue to make you pay for the Yankees, so is there a way to bet on either team and do so without a lot of juice?
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Not Much Going Right for Orioles
Alexander Wells gets his third career start — all on the road — with this being his first against the Yankees. Early returns have not been good for the 24-year old southpaw because he has allowed seven earned runs (three home runs) in 10 2/3 innings (5.91 ERA).
It does not get better for Wells against the Bronx Bombers. The additions of Anthony Rizzo and Joey Gallo only improves an offense that has a top 10 wRC+ against left-handed pitching at home. The new lefty power hitters also do damage against same-handed pitchers. Rizzo is a true reverse-splits hitter (.356 average vs LHP, 9:10 K/BB Ratio) while Gallo is hitting 30 points higher and slugging 29 points better against lefties.
The Orioles offense has issues against right-handed pitching on the road. The offense is bottom three in average, slugging, OPS, Weighted Runs Above Average (wRAA), wRC+, and home run-to-fly ball ratio. They also have the worst OBP and hard-hit percentage.
Baltimore has to hope a two-month trend maintains with the Yankees starting pitcher.
Yankees Love Hitting at Home
Gerrit Cole has coincidentally seen his ERA rise after a crackdown on substances allowed to be used by pitchers to maintain a grip on the baseball. After allowing more than two earned runs in a start through May, Cole has done so five times in June and July. Three of those outings included five-plus earned runs allowed.
While more runners have scored against Cole in 2021, he has struck out more batters while walking fewer and cutting his home runs per nine innings by 0.56 from last season. Part of the explanation for his fluctuating stats could be baseball enhancement, but it also could be his aggressiveness. Cole’s 67.6 first-strike percentage is the best of his career.
Despite having two more walks at home in 10 fewer innings, Cole has a 2.70 ERA and has allowed five fewer home runs at Yankees Stadium (six at home, 11 away) than on the road. His home ERA is 0.75 runs better than his road ERA. Only one Orioles hitter — Maikel Franco — has a batting average over .250 against Cole and only Franco and D.J. Stewart have taken him deep.
Back to the Yankees offense, only the Angels have a better HR/FB ratio against righties at home. Their 10.6% walk rate at home also works against Wells, who walks 5.29 batters per nine innings.
Orioles-Yankees Pick
It is difficult to see the Orioles keeping this game close, especially as they figure out if Wells is getting his look as Baltimore slogs towards the end of the season. The Yankees are inching towards the second wild-card spot and are seven games out in the American League East.
The Orioles have a fun offense that should play spoiler now and then, but their inability to generate offense on the road, especially against right-handers, is a concern against the Yankees ace.
The moneyline is a fade despite a massive drop from the opening line, so the best value when accounting for everything above is the Yankees run line.
Pick: Yankees -1.5 (-135, bet to -140), or bet the run total under 9 if it goes up
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