Hannah Foslien/Getty Images. Pictured: Michael Pineda
Orioles vs. Twins Odds
| Orioles Odds | +170 |
| Twins Odds | -197 |
| Over/Under | 9 |
| Time | 1:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
| Odds as of Tuesday and via BetAmerica. | |
Michael Pineda returns after an injury scare to face an ailing Baltimore Orioles lineup. Fortunately, for his sake, the Orioles have struggled all season.
Both Pineda and Jorge López place in about the middle of the league with their peripherals; however, Pineda does not allow many walks. This is essentially the only advantageous angle for either starter in this spot, so which team has the edge in the other departments?
Orioles’ Lineup Features Contrast
The Orioles are abhorrent when it comes to facing righties. They rank among the bottom of the league with an 80 wRC+ and 8.2% walk rate. Given Pineda’s ability to force batter to chase, this could come into play facing a team who likes to swing the bat.
The Orioles’ lineup is a bit top heavy, but Anthony Santander, one of their breakout stars from a year ago, is starting to coming alive. Upon returning from an injury on May 21, he is slashing .471/.500/.882 entering play Tuesday.
In that same timeframe, though, Austin Hays and Cedric Mullins have cooled off from their hot starts to the season. They leave their success against Pineda in the hands of Freddy Galvis, Trey Mancini and D.J. Stewart, who have hit righties well this season.
You wouldn’t expect it considering their annual cellar-dwelling status, but the Orioles’ bullpen is not an outstanding weakness for them. They still have options in Paul Fry, Cole Sulser, and Cesar Valdez who can give solid innings in the case that López struggles early.
Twins’ Lineup Should Crush, But Can Bullpen Hold Up?
Minnesota tends to struggle more off of right-handers than lefties, so that plays into López’s hands. But outside of velocity, there is not much he brings to the table. He will not go deep into the game, so the above list of successful bullpen arms will need to carry some of the burden of Wednesday afternoon’s workload. On the other hand, he had success against the strong-hitting Boston Red Sox earlier this month.
The Twins have the advantage when it comes to their starter, but not necessarily by much. The key to their success in this matchup will be their lineup. Jorge Polanco returned on Tuesday from his injury, and they need all of the help possible after Byron Buxton went down earlier this season. Most of their order can still hit righties, especially their big boppers in Miguel Sanó and Nelson Cruz. López ranked in the first percentile in average exit velocity against. With these two bats mashing right-handers, this is quite the mismatch. Look for the Twins’ lineup to be able to make López exit earlier than he or his team would like.
The Twins bullpen is their ultimate crux this season. Their combined 4.85 ERA places them 25th in the league. They also walk hitters more than the league average, but this should not be an issue with a team like the Orioles who will swing the bat. Pineda is far more durable than López, so if he can get through at least five, they should be in excellent shape. Álex Colomé has somewhat settled down from his absolutely terrible beginning to 2021. Taylor Rogers is a very reliable back-end arm now. Randy Dobnak is also solid. Given these arms, they should in in good shape to close out this game easily.
Orioles-Twins Pick
The Orioles are sliding, and they will more than likely not get better in a very competitive AL East. The Twins are not as weak as their start and with Pineda on the hill, they should silence the Oriole bats.
The moneyline is far too expensive in this one but the Twins are the right side. Grab the run line and play to -125.
Pick: Twins -1.5 (-105), play to -125.
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