Pac-12 Conference Championship

Oregon State vs. Colorado Odds

I figured the Pac-12 would be weird, fun and difficult to handicap, and here were are with the match-up everyone was counting on: Colorado against… Oregon State?

Yeah, no one outside the state of Oregon had the Beavers making it this far and probably only half the state considering they had to deal with the Oregon Ducks in the semifinals.

The Beavers came in as +8.5 underdogs and really didn’t have too much trouble with their cross-state rival, outscoring them in both halves to cruise to a relatively easy 75-64 victory.

The Beavers will come into this conference championship matchup getting a similar amount of respect from the sportsbooks with Colorado laying 8.5 points from DraftKings, but there’s reason to think the Buffaloes could have trouble covering that number.

Colorado has played two close games this tournament: a nail-biter against Cal and a game that was decided on the last possession against USC on Friday. To be fair, the books were planning on the USC-Colorado game being a close one, as the Buffaloes were only -1.5.

Had it not been for the fact that USC just straight up forgot to box out and allowed D’Shawn Schwartz to come in for the put-back dunk, the Buffaloes might not even be in the conference championship game.

There’s no shame in playing a close game with the Trojans. They were my pick to win the tournament and for reasons of vanity, I wanted them to pull off the win on Friday.

What was more surprising was my Cal Golden Bears coming through with the cover when they played Colorado. The Buffaloes used a slim advantage in rebounds, 34-30, to pull out the 61-58 in a game they were favored by 13.5 points. I know the old adage says that good teams wins and great teams cover, but when you’re a fan of a team like Cal, you’ll treat the cover like a win. I hope it hangs a +13.5 banner in that arena at the start of the next season.

Meanwhile, Oregon State is coming into this game with one of the great equalizers an underdog college team can have. The Beavers’ tournament run has been from shooting an impressive percentage from 3-point range.

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Guards Jarod Lucas and Ethan Thompson have been leading the charge in that category. Against UCLA, Lucas was 5-of-10 from deep, and Thompson got the hot hand against the Ducks to hit five of his eight long-range shots.

Colorado isn’t lacking its own skilled guard play, however. McKinley Wright IV put up an efficient 24 points against USC and got some help from forward Jeriah Horne off the bench, who scored 19 and shot 4-of-8 from deep.

Both teams are shooting around 35% from 3 this season, but if the recent trends continue, the Beavers could have a decent chance to keep things close.

I wouldn’t necessarily count on Oregon State to pull off a third straight upset, but it’s not entirely out of the question either. Wright IV will be the best player on the floor in this one, and I would expect him to play like it and be one of the main differences in this game after a big game against USC.

I’m taking the Beavers +8.5 in a matchup that should be fun to watch.

The fun can only be enhanced if Bill Walton is on the call for this game like he was for the USC-Colorado game. He calls the game like someone who loves basketball but has no interest in talking about the game in front of him. I’m pretty sure he spent more time waxing poetic about the majestic buffaloes that used to roam the planes of this country than he did talking about the Buffaloes’ offensive execution in the final minutes.

Take Oregon State to keep the game close with a bunch of 3-pointers and bet on Walton to go off on a tangent about how much Beavers affect their local ecosystem before the play-by-play guy pulls him back in.

Pick: Oregon State +8.5.

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