North Carolina vs. Florida State Odds

North Carolina and Florida State meet in the ACC semifinals Friday night with the Seminoles looking for revenge.

North Carolina is getting hot at the right time. It’s won four of its last five games, including a 101-point offensive performance against Notre Dame in the second round. The Tar Heels wore down Virginia Tech in the quarterfinals and now are a team that nobody wants to face.

The Seminoles got a break Thursday as Duke had to pull out of the ACC Tournament due to a positive COVID-19 test.

However, the last time Seminoles were on the court, they were being upset by an 11-15 Notre Dame squad on the road. Leonard Hamilton has one of the most athletic squads in the country, and they’ll need every bit of that athleticism to keep up with the Tar Heels elite backcourt.

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When North Carolina Has the Ball

The biggest hurdle this North Carolina has had to overcome this season is downright terrible shooting from the field.

The Tar Heels are shooting under 33% from 3-point range and under 50% from 2-point range during ACC play. They actually shot the ball quite poorly in their 78-70 win over Florida State two weeks ago, going only 43.3% from the field.

The reason they were able to beat the Seminoles is that they dominated the offensive glass, grabbing 20 rebounds.

Where North Carolina excels is in its frontcourt with Armando Bacot and Garrison Brooks. The duo has led the Tar Heels to the best offensive rebounding percentage in the country. So, a lot of the Tar Heels’ points come off of second-chance opportunities.

Another reason the Tar Heels were able to beat Florida State is that they made a trip to the free throw line a whopping 30 times and made 27 of them. That was really out of the ordinary for North Carolina, which shoots only 66.6% from the charity stripe.

For the Tar Heels to win this game, the recipe is pretty simple:

1. Dominate the offensive glass.
2. Get to the free-throw line early and often.

Florida State struggles mightily in both of those areas and actually has the worst free-throw rate allowed in the ACC.

So, if North Carolina can repeat its performance from two weeks ago, it should be able to move onto the finals.

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When Florida State Has the Ball

The reason Florida State went 11-4 in the ACC this season is because it’s torched the rest of the conference on offense.

The Seminoles average 1.14 points per possession and are the best 3-point shooting team in the conference at over 40%. Shooting 3s is exactly how you beat this North Carolina defense because going inside is a nightmare, as it allows under 48% from 2-point range and 55.7% on shot attempts at the rim, per Hoop-Math.

Florida State has dominated the offensive glass all season long, ranking second in the ACC behind North Carolina in offensive rebound rate. In their loss two weeks ago the Seminoles grabbed 18 offensive boards, so North Carolina won’t be the only team with second-chance opportunities.

Honestly, what Florida State needs to do in this game is shoot more 3-pointers.

It attempted only 17 3s in its loss to North Carolina, compared to 50 attempts from inside the arc. The way to beat this North Carolina defense is from the perimeter, so I expect the Seminoles to attempt a ton of triples tonight.

Betting Analysis & Pick

North Carolina has too big of a mismatch inside against Florida State.

The Seminoles have yet to keep Tar Heels off the offensive glass in either meeting this season and likely won’t be able to stop them again on Friday night.

You can make the argument that North Carolina is playing some of the best basketball in the country right now, so I am going to back Roy Williams’ squad tonight.

I have North Carolina projected as a -0.44 favorites, so I think there’s value on the Tar Heels at +2.

Pick: North Carolina +2 (down to +1.5).

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