Minas Panagiotakis/Getty Images. Pictured: Jacob Markstrom.
Calgary Flames vs. Winnipeg Jets Odds
| Flames Odds | -118 |
| Jets Odds | +100 |
| Over/Under | 6.5 |
| Time | 8 p.m. ET |
| TV | NHL.tv |
| Odds as of Friday night and via FanDuel. | |
My biggest bet of the NHL bubble last summer was on the Calgary Flames to knock out the Winnipeg Jets in their Stanley Cup playoff-qualifier series. When the Jets lost a pair of stars early in the series, I had to double down.
Early in this 2021 season, the Flames and Jets meet again for multiple matchups, as they begin a three-game set on Monday night. It might be the loss of a star that might make the difference on whether I’m on Calgary again, even if I’m not thrilled with what’s going on with the Flames right now.
I’ve never been more disappointed in a team I’ve bet on that actually won the game.
Calgary Flames
After a weeklong layoff, the Flames outplayed Toronto 5-on-5 twice last week but lost both games, then they had a better Expected Goal Share (XG%) than the Canadiens on Thursday night and also did not win.
Then it was time for the vaunted players-only meeting to fire up the troops, as Calgary was desperate for a win. Sure enough, something changed and they got the much-needed victory on Saturday night. Except it wasn’t all that it was cracked up to be.
The Flames edged Montreal, 2-0, thanks to an early power play goal, outstanding netminding from Jacob Markstrom and a late empty-net goal. In between the goals, the Habs racked up 17 High-Danger Chances (HDC) to Calgary’s four while the teams competed at even strength.
On Sunday, a rumour leaked that Sam Bennett has demanded a trade. Cue the “Everything’s fine” gif, the one with the flames … it’s never been more appropriate.
Winnipeg Jets
The Jets were only able to manage three HDC against Vancouver on Saturday. It was a disappointing effort in the middle of Winnipeg’s longest homestand of the season.
Now, the Jets have to deal with the Flames for three games, a series that should get progressively more heated, especially considering the teams met in the bubble last summer when the Flames eliminated the Jets.
The Jets’ best game of the season was in their opener against the Flames, as they came back from 3-1 down to win in overtime thanks to a fantastic performance from Patrik Laine.
Winnipeg then traded Laine to Columbus days later.
More than the heated rivalry and a lack of toughness in the lineup, the Jets’ biggest roadblock to success against Calgary is the one literally blocking the net.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Markstrom has been worth every penny for Calgary, posting a +4.31 Goals Saved Above Average with a pair of shutouts this season. While the Jets are waiting for their Vezina Trophy Award-winner Connor Hellebuyck to steal them a win the way Markstrom did for the Flames on Saturday.
My true moneyline makes the Flames a -110 favorite with the Jets at +110 in an imaginary no-vigorish universe.
The opening line was more congruent with the Flames slight underdogs at -115, which is a fair price and worth a bet. It has since gone up to -118, but I’d still play this at -120 or better.
Also, while I don’t play totals in the NHL, under 6.5 goals is a viable play with how well Markstrom has played and how the offenses of both teams have struggled.
Pick: Flames -118 (-120 or better) / Under 6.5
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