Ethan Miller/Getty Images. Pictured: Robin Lehner, Torey Krug
Thursday night is going to be a busy one for hockey bettors. There are 14 games on the schedule and the action gets underway with seven simultaneous contests at 7 p.m. ET.
As you may have heard, home teams and favorites are off to a terrific start so far this season. Will those trends continue? Or will we start to see underdogs begin to bark in the NHL?
Here are our favorite bets for what will certainly be a hectic night on the ice:
Matt Russell: Blue Jackets (-120) over Panthers
- Puck Drop: 7 p.m. ET
If you believe the Panthers are the better team, as early season advanced metrics would indicate, then a plus-money price for Florida is probably pretty attractive. The lighting for the Cats gets even better when we reflect some shine off the numbers from the Panthers’ 4-3 shootout win in Columbus.
The Panthers held the Blue Jackets to just two High-Danger Chances at 5-on-5. The Blue Jackets converted one of two, en route to a full one-goal deficit in Expected Goals (xGF).
In a defensive slog typical of a Blue Jackets game, the Panthers managed 1.76 xGF to Columbus’s 0.75. That doesn’t even take into account Florida’s goal with 2.5 seconds left to tie the game, which forced an eventual shootout, which the Panthers won.
Blue Jackets backers would argue a bad beat, but the truth is the Blue Jackets should have never been in the game considering their inability to generate offense.
That doesn’t mean they can’t play a better game in the return match-up, but the Panthers early season effort has been pretty impressive on the defensive end.
Through no fault of their own, the Panthers have played just three games, and not against the high-octane portion of their schedule, so we’ll need to see more before we put too much stock in their rating this season. The numbers look great though.
They’ve only allowed 10 High-Danger Chances (HDC) in those three games, a comically low amount that helps them mask the usual slow start by Sergei Bobrovsky and his -1.47 GSAA. He almost cost them this game early, giving up three goals on 12 shots at one point.
So, what do we believe?
Is an even-money or better price the way to go with the Panthers? Or, do we believe in NHL teams’ ability to play better in a rematch game?
Looking at what the Blue Jackets have done makes me lean towards their ability to play better on the back end of these meetings. Columbus has increased their level of play at even-strength in all three second-game situations, even though they only have one win to show for it (a win over the defending Stanley Cup Champions, for what it’s worth).
They’ve improved at not just a marginal rate either. The loser of the first game improves their win probability by an average of 9% in the second. The Blue Jackets have done so at a rate of better than 30%.
With that in mind, I believe the Blue Jackets should be favored in this revenge spot, and I’m willing to bet them at a win probability of 55%, which translates to -120 on the moneyline.
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Michael Leboff: Blues (+130) over Golden Knights
- Puck Drop: 9 p.m. ET
The St. Louis Blues Blues are giving up more goals than we’re used to seeing. The Blues are allowing 3.7 goals per game and 2.7 goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. When you think of Craig Berube’s Blues, you think defense. But in a funky turn of events, St. Louis is leaking goals to start the season. The Blues have allowed 4+ goals in half of their games and they’ve shipped at least six goals twice.
Numbers like that give you some pause, especially since the Blues watched their No. 1 defenseman walk to Vegas in the offseason, but there’s no reason to panic about this defense. While they are allowing 2.7 goals/60, the Blues are surrendering just 1.99 xG/60 through their first seven contests. That number is basically on par with where St. Louis was in 2019/20.
The Golden Knights are an offensive buzzsaw that led the NHL (by a noteworthy margin) with a +0.65 xG differential per 60 minutes last season, but the Blues are equipped to absorb that kind of pressure and keep the Knights from running away with this game.
Expected goals (also known as xG) is a predictive statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as shooting luck or outstanding goaltending.
Simply put, an expected goals rate (xGF%) above 50% is considered good because it means a team is creating the majority of the scoring chances. Anything below 50% is usually a sign that a team is struggling to control play.
xG numbers cited from Evolving Hockey.
Additionally, the Blues should have the goaltending edge in this game. The Knights plan to rotate their goalies each game in the beginning of the season and Robin Lehner played on Tuesday, so that means St. Louis will go up against Marc-Andre Fleury. Despite a strong start to the season, Fleury is a few tiers below Lehner and his presence should give the Blues, a team that does struggle to create opportunities, a bit of a boost on offense.
The Blues closed as +125 underdogs against the Knights on Tuesday night. I thought that number was in range for a play, so I’ll go back to them again on Thursday with what should be a better goaltending matchup.
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Pete Truszkowski: Ducks-Coyotes Under 5.5 Goals (-137)
- Puck Drop: 9 p.m. ET
After a down season in 2019-20, John Gibson has vaulted himself right back into the mix to be considered one of the best goaltenders in hockey. Gibson’s Anaheim Ducks are 3-2-2 through seven games despite scoring just 1.71 goals per game, which ranks 31st of 31 NHL teams.
Gibson has played in six of Anaheim’s first seven games and he leads the NHL in both Goals Saved Above Average (GSAA) and Goals Saved Above Expectation (GSAx). He also has the second-highest save percentage among goaltenders with at least four starts.
The Ducks have certainly needed Gibson to be spectacular. Anaheim ranks 24th in the NHL with an average of 1.98 expected goals per 60 minutes and the team’s leading point producer is Carter Rowney, a 31-year-old fringe NHL player, with four assists.
Things will not get easier for the Ducks, as they face the stingy Arizona Coyotes for the second time in three nights. While Arizona’s defensive metrics won’t blow anyone away, the Yotes have developed a reputation over the years as a defense-first team. They remain in the top half of the league in terms of goals against per game, and I expect that to improve as the season moves forward.
Goals Saved Above Expectation (GSAx) is an advanced statistic that measures a goaltender’s performance against the quality of scoring chances he faced. It is a better catch-all metric compared to save percentage because every SV% counts every saved shot and goal the same, while GSAx weights shots by the quality of the scoring chance.
GSAx numbers cited from Evolving Hockey.
If both teams roll with their starters, as they are expected to do, this will be a matchup between two of the league’s best goaltenders. Arizona’s Darcy Kuemper ranks sixth in the NHL with a +2.92 GSAx and he’s been among the best goalies in the league for a couple of seasons now. Even if Kuemper doesn’t go, Antti Raanta is arguably the best backup in the league.
Offensively, Arizona has under-performed compared to its metrics. Despite averaging the second-most expected goals per 60 minutes, the Coyotes are inside the bottom-10 in actual production. While it’s natural to expect this to improve for the Coyotes, the lack of true firepower up front caps their ceiling. Players like Phil Kessel, Conor Garland, Nick Schmaltz and Clayton Keller are solid, but not game-changing talents.
With the form both goalies are in and the lack of fire-power in front of them, I expect another low-scoring game in this series. These teams played on Tuesday, and Anaheim won 1-0. Six of Anaheim’s seven games have gone under the total. Expect that to continue on Thursday.
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