Darcy Finley/NHLI via Getty Images. Pictured: Kyle Connor.
Flames vs. Jets Odds
| Flames | -114 |
| Jets | -103 |
| Over/Under | 6.0 |
| Time | TV | 8 p.m. ET |
| Odds as of Monday night and via DraftKings. | |
There are no judges in hockey. That’s called figure skating. If there were judges ringside in Winnipeg on Monday night, they would have given the Flames a standing eight count early in the first period.
Then they would have sat back and watched the Flames pummel the Jets with body shots for the rest of the fight, only to never see Calgary deliver the knockout punch. As a result, the game went to hockey’s version of the cards: the shootout.
Flames
The Flames got their much-needed win on Saturday, but it was time for the Flames to show a little heart on Monday. The vaunted ‘players-only’ meeting that Calgary had in-between games with the Canadiens worked on the scoreboard, but not in the underlying metrics. After stealing the back-end of their pair of games with Montreal on the back of Jacob Markstrom, the Flames couldn’t have been proud of how they played, being out-shot and out-chanced in the 2-0 win.
When they gave up the first two goals to the Jets (both on the power play) on Monday, the Flames could have packed it in. Instead, they got the break of the season when Chris Taney flipped a puck from his own blue line that somehow bounded its way past the reigning Vezina Trophy winner, Connor Hellebuyck.
The Flames took the good bounce and put the heat on the Jets from then until the end of regulation tallying 14 high-danger chances (HDC) to Winnipeg’s three at even-strength. They showed some desperation, eventually scoring twice in the third period to take a 3-2 lead, only to watch the Jets tie with Hellebuyck pulled for an extra attacker. They went on to one-up the Jets in the shootout.
Winnipeg Jets
The Jets came into Monday’s game off a loss to Vancouver, and when looking at their underlying metrics, you see two really good games from them in 5-on-5. Even after conjuring a point towards their standings, the Jets advanced analytics didn’t shine brightly on them. Their expected goal share (XG%) 5-on-5 was just 24.5% on Monday, their lowest of the season.
Now the Jets are the team desperate for a win. With no day off between games, we’re likely to see the backups do battle and if I’m the Jets, I’m quite content with the trade off. The Tanev goal to start the second period was the softest goal of the NHL season so far, and only highlights the play of Hellebuyck, who hasn’t played at the level we’ve comem to expect the last few seasons. Laurent Broissant actually has a better goals saved above average (GSAA) in his two starts.
Meanwhile, the Jets will get the opportunity to try to score on David Rittich, who was quite poor in his one start this season, last Thursday versus the Canadiens. Given that Markstrom is in the top-5 in GSAA, this is a drastic downgrade.
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Betting Analysis & Pick
With both starting goaltenders in, the Flames grade out to a favorite, but in the rematch situation with the goaltending matchup heavily favoring the Jets, they become slightly better than an even-money play.
Desperate hockey teams make for the best bets, and when you can get them in a revenge spot against a sub-par goaltender, at a price that’s not going to fully account for it, all the better. I don’t expect an early knockout, but I expect a full three periods of fight from the Jets, so I’ll back them at as close to even-money as I can get them.
Pick: Jets (-110 or better)