Photo by Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott
It’s officially overreaction SZN.
Mainstream sports media analysts, NFL fans and recreational football bettors consistently overreact to Week 1 results, allowing savvy bettors to cut through the narratives and find value in Week 2.
Casual bettors overwhelmingly make decisions based on emotion or recent results, and right now we have just one week of action to consider.
On the other hand, professionals rely solely on data and won’t allow the results of a single event to overly influence their opinions, and this is exactly what we’re seeing in NFL Week 2.
Speaking of data, our NFL PRO Projections are based on just that and find value by comparing our projected odds to current odds.
The larger the difference between the two, the better the value for that bet.
And when it comes to Sunday’s NFL Week 2 games, 49ers vs. Eagles (1 p.m. ET), Falcons vs. Buccaneers (4:05 p.m. ET) and Cowboys vs. Chargers (4:25 p.m. ET) lead the way regarding the slate’s top edges.
Let’s dig in.
Biggest NFL Week 2 Betting Edges
Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.
49ers vs. Eagles Betting Model Pick
1 p.m. ET | FOX
This edge was massive earlier this week, but sharp money has shown up to tighten this betting opportunity a bit.
Still, even after the line movement we’ve seen thus far, there’s still plenty of meat left on the 49ers vs. Eagles betting value bone.
A couple of short days ago this total sat at 50.5, but it has now be been down to a consensus of 49.
And even at that number, our betting model shows a 5.6% under edge based on the projected total of 46.1.
PRO Projections Pick: Under 49
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Falcons vs. Buccaneers Betting Model Pick
4:05 p.m. ET | FOX
I started off this article by talking about overreactions, and the current Falcons vs. Buccaneers spread is potentially the biggest overreaction of Week 2, which makes all the sense in the world.
Tampa Bay just beat Dallas in a nationally-televised, season-opening matchup.
On the other hand, Atlanta got trounced by Philadelphia, 32-6 in Week 1.
So of course the Bucs should be favored at home against the Falcons, though the 12.5-point spread appears to be too much.
We project this line at Atlanta +9.7, translating to a B-graded, 5.6% edge, the biggest of any NFL Week 2 spread.
PRO Projections Pick: Falcons +12.5
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Cowboys vs. Chargers Betting Model Pick
4:25 p.m. ET | CBS
Dallas is arguably the most public team in the NFL, so this Week 2 edge is a bit surprising.
Our model suggest that the 3-point spread is one point off the true line for this matchup, resulting in a 4.3% Cowboys edge when compared to The Action Network’s projection of +2.
PRO Projections Pick: Cowboys +3
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