NFL Prop Bets

Pick	Bet Now
Ben Roethlisberger Under 277.5 Pass Yards (-112)	DraftKings

Ben Roethlisberger has one of the more talented trio of WRs at his disposal in the league. However, he’s been let down by drops all season long as evidenced by the Steelers’ league-leading 41 drops. It’s resulted in bad luck when it comes to his passing yards to-date, averaging just 253 yards per game.

Another reason Roethlisberger is averaging his fewest yards per game since 2012 is the Steelers’ continued dominance on defense, ranking No. 1 overall in Football Outsiders’ DVOA — and that’s going to be magnified in a matchup they’re favored to win by 14 points against a Ryan Finley-led Bengals team.

I don’t anticipate that the Steelers need to throw much in order to win in Cincinnati. It could be the perfect spot for them to get their running game, which has struggled the past couple of weeks, back on track heading into the playoffs.

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Due to the expected reduction of volume, it likely means Big Ben would have to connect on a few deep balls to clear this number. And while the Bengals defense is unimposing (ranked 29th in DVOA), they’ve been above-average at limiting opponents on deep throws of 20 or more yards by allowing a success rate of only 33% on deep passes (seventh-best in the NFL).

Big Ben has struggled on deep throws all season, despite attempting the eighth-most. His 25.5% success rate (per Sports Info Solutions) is the third-worst among 36 quarterbacks to attempt at least 15 passes of 20-plus yards. And we can’t pin the blame on his receivers, either, considering only 47% of those passes have been on target (26th).

Big Ben has the fourth-lowest Average Completed Air Yards at 4.5, and this matchup will only make the Steelers passing attack more conservative. Finley is unlikely to generate enough points to force Big Ben into a pass-heavy game script. I’m also hoping that  the Steelers defense gets to Finley early, because any sort of defensive touchdown would plummet Big Ben’s in-game prop.

Roy K. Miller/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Ben Roethlisberger

Much of the value on this prop is a bet on the Steelers defense vs. Finley.

My projections are in line with the market at around 26.5 completed passes for Big Ben, which would set his median projection at 262.5 yards. The market is overinflated here — I would bet the under down to 269.5, but here are his projected chances of going over or under various lines based on my 10,000 player prop simulations:

Pass Yards	Over	Under
270.5	43.3%	56.7%
271.5	42.8%	57.2%
272.5	42.5%	57.5%
273.5	42.3%	57.7%
274.5	41.6%	58.4%
275.5	40.9%	59.1%
276.5	40.7%	59.3%
277.5	40.1%	59.9%

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