Carmen Mandato/Getty Images. Pictured: Gardner Minshew
Sean Koerner — our director of predictive analytics — is breaking down his favorite NFL prop bets for every slate of the 2020 season. He has five picks for Week 15, including the over on Gardner Minshew’s passing prop and a bevy of receiving props.
NFL Prop Bets & Picks
Colts RB Nyheim Hines Over 19.5 Rec Yards (-120)
Jonathan Taylor is back to dominating the Colts’ rushing work, but Hines is still the lead pass-catching back. The Texans struggle with RBs in the passing game, so I like Hines’ over here.
| Bet to 22.5 yards at BetMGM |
Texans WR Chad Hansen Over 33.5 Rec Yards (-110)
Hansen has surprised in his first two games for the Texans, going for 5/101/0 and 7/56/0.
Brandin Cooks should return this week, but the Texans are still trying to fill the void left by Will Fuller, Randall Cobb and Kenny Stills. Duke Johnson has been ruled out this week, which leaves another three or four targets up for grabs in this offense.
| Bet to 36.5 yards at BetMGM |
Patriots WR Damiere Byrd Under 45.5 Rec Yards (-105)
I’m usually a bit lower than the market on Byrd, and this week is no different. However, with the potential matchup against Byron Jones, I love the under here.
Byrd faced Jones back in Week 1 and went catchless despite running a route on 95% of dropbacks.
| Bet to 39.5 yards at BetMGM |
Buccaneers TE Cameron Brate Over 13.5 Rec Yards (-115)
Brate has seen his routes run percentage climb for seven straight games. In Weeks 8-12, he topped 20+ yards in four of five games, then cooled off with a 1/9/0 game last week (despite a season-high 52% routes run rate).
I’m buying the dip here wherever I can find his prop.
| Bet to 17.5 yards at William Hill |
Jaguars QB Gardner Minshew Over 237.5 Pass Yards (-112)
The Jaguars are a 13-point underdog against the Ravens, which means we should see them get into a pass-heavy game script.
CB Jimmy Smith has been ruled out, and CB Marcus Peters is questionable despite not practicing this week. The Jags’ WRs are all healthy, which sets up for a sneaky spot on Minshew’s over.
| Bet to 243.5 yards at DraftKings |