NFL Prop Bets: Ravens-Browns

Snead returns after missing the past two games due to COVID-19 and should immediately slide back in as Lamar Jackson’s No. 2 wide receiver.

Snead should see an increase in volume based on this matchup alone.

He’ll be chased around by slot corner M.J. Stewart, who owns a low 47.0 Pro Football Focus grade and thus shouldn’t pose a threat. The Browns have run Cover 3 and 4 at the highest rate according to SportsInfoSolutions, which Snead has thrived against with a 10.96 yards per target rate — he has a 7.13 yards per target against all other coverages, for context. This makes sense as Cover 3 and 4 zone will typically try to eliminate deep throws at the expense of plays underneath.

The weather could play a minor factor with freezing temperatures and double-digit winds forecasted in Cleveland. That’s enough to limit the number of downfield throws Jackson attempts in favor of a lower average depth of target player such as Snead (8.6 aDOT). His 6.5 yards after catch also ranks 10th among qualified WRs per NFL NextGenStats, which helps raises his floor.

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Snead has gone over this number six of his 10 games played despite Jackson underperforming as a passer this season. And I, along with the market, are actually projecting Jackson to throw for 10-15 more yards than his 2020 average tonight.

Given the added volume and perfect matchup for Snead, I would bet this up to 32.5, but here are his projected chances of going over or under various lines based on my 10,000 player prop simulations: