Jamie Squire/Getty Images. Pictured: Patrick Mahomes
What’s on the line in Week 14?
Four teams could clinch their division. Three could clinch a playoff berth. And both wild-card races could see notable movement.
To help clarify the NFL playoff picture heading into Sunday, we’ve outlined the current standings as well as all the possible scenarios based on the slate’s results. And as a bonus, we used our betting model to simulate the rest of the season 10,000 times to project the final brackets in the AFC and NFC.
NFL Playoff Picture & Scenarios
| Current AFC Picture | |
|---|---|
| No. 1 Steelers (11-1) | |
| No. 7 Colts (8-4) | No. 2 Chiefs (11-1) |
| No. 6 Dolphins (8-4) | No. 3 Bills (9-3) |
| No. 5 Browns (9-3) | No. 4 Titans (8-4) |
| Bubble: Raiders (7-5), Ravens (7-5), Patriots (6-7) | |
The AFC North is starting to look crowded.
Last week, the Cleveland Browns pulled out a 41-35 win over the Tennessee Titans to improve to 9-3 and maintain their position in the conference’s fifth spot. The Miami Dolphins and Indianapolis Colts also won their respective matchups to hold onto the final two wild-card spots and create further separation from those chasing them.
Of the teams on the outside looking in, our model gives the Baltimore Ravens a 65% chance to make playoffs — slightly better than the 64% mark it gives the Colts. A win as 3-point favorites over the Browns would be huge for the Ravens, and is just one of the scenarios that would clinch the division for the Pittsburgh Steelers.
The Steelers can clinch a playoff spot with an upset win over the Bills — a scenario our NFL PRO Projections sees as more likely than the market. A Steelers win coupled with a Browns loss seals the division. Pittsburgh also gets in this week if Tennessee loses, or Las Vegas or Miami lose or tie.
Pittsburgh is not the only AFC team with a chance to clinch a division: A win for the Kansas City Chiefs or a Las Vegas loss or tie gives the Chiefs their fifth consecutive AFC West title.
Those are both formalities, which is also the case for the Buffalo Bills. The Bills can clinch this week with a win over the Steelers and losses by the Ravens, Dolphins and Raiders. Our model gives the Bills a 92% chance to make the playoffs. The division is a different story. The Bills have a 71% chance to win the AFC East, but a loss on Sunday fails to capitalize on an expected Dolphins loss to the Chiefs as 7-point dogs.
The closest division race can’t be decided this week, but AFC South leaders are in two different situations: The Titans are favored by more than a touchdown against the lowly Jaguars (check out real-time odds), while the Colts are expected to be in a close game with the Raiders. A Colts loss would be a hit to their 64% chance of making the playoffs, according to our model. The same result gets the Raiders to 8-5 with only one game remaining against a team with a winning record (Dolphins).
| Current NFC Picture | |
|---|---|
| No. 1 Saints (10-2) | |
| No. 7 Vikings (6-6) | No. 2 Packers (9-3) |
| No. 6 Buccaneers (7-5) | No. 3 Rams (8-4) |
| No. 5 Seahawks (8-4) | No. 4 Giants (5-7) |
| Bubble: Cardinals (6-6), 49ers (5-7) | |
The race for the NFC West crown is still hot.
After starting the day in the conference’s No. 2 spot, the Seattle Seahawks fell to fifth following their loss to the New York Giants. Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Rams jumped from fifth to third with a win over the Arizona Cardinals, who now find themselves on the outside looking in.
While it wasn’t pretty, the Minnesota Vikings are now in control of the final wild card spot after edging out the Jaguars in overtime. How long will that control last? Well, the Vikings are 7-point underdogs on the road against Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Should that expected result hold, our model’s 86% chance for the Bucs to make the playoffs becomes almost certain and the final spot gets even messier.
Chris Graythen/Getty Images. Pictured: Tom BradyConsider Sunday’s schedule: The Giants (5-7) are short home underdogs against the Cardinals (6-6). The 5-7 Chicago Bears — yes, they’re somewhere still in this picture — are short home dogs against the Texans. The 49ers (5-7) are favored at home against Washington, also 5-7.
All of that means that if the Vikings lose and the Cardinals drop a fourth straight game, we’re looking at 6-7 in the final wild card spot. The Cardinals have the highest odds at 56% according to our model, but the model might break if Daniel Jones and Co. pull off the upset.
The easier stuff to figure out?
The New Orleans Saints can clinch the NFC South with a win over rookie Jalen Hurts and the Eagles — New Orleans is a 7-point favorite. And finally, a Green Bay Packers win and Vikings loss clinches the NFC North for the Packers.
NFL Playoff Bracket Predictions
Below is how we project the end-of-season bracket as of Sunday night.
| Final AFC Projections | |
|---|---|
| No. 1 Steelers | |
| No. 7 Ravens | No. 2 Chiefs |
| No. 6 Dolphins | No. 3 Bills |
| No. 5 Browns | No. 4 Titans |
| Final NFC Projections | |
|---|---|
| No. 1 Saints | |
| No. 7 Cardinals | No. 2 Packers |
| No. 6 Buccaneers | No. 3 Rams |
| No. 5 Seahawks | No. 4 Giants |
How did we forecast these brackets? We used our model to project the top-four seeds of each conference by ranking the most likely division winners by their chances to land the Nos. 1-4 seeds. Then, we identified teams with the next highest playoff odds, and assigned the subsequent standings based on highest average wins.