Hannah Foslien/Getty Images. Pictured: Josh Allen
We won’t know who the Packers will face until Buccaneers-Saints is final, but the other conference championship matchup is set.
After losing Patrick Mahomes to a concussion in the third quarter, the Chiefs held onto a narrow lead over the Browns in Sunday’s Divisional Round matchup, punching their ticket to the AFC Championship Game to face the Bills.
Given the uncertainty with Mahomes, these lines have already seen a ton of movement since opening (we’re tracking that here). Most notably, the spread moved from Bills -1.5 at open to Chiefs -2.5/-3 as of writing, depending on the sportsbook (shop real-time odds here).
Our staff has already taken a position on the spread. They detail which side they’re on below.
Bills at Chiefs Picks
| Angle | Bills +3 |
| # of Analysts | 2 |
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Matthew Freedman: I can’t help myself. The Bills are an outstanding 12-6 against the spread (ATS) for a 28.6% Return on Investment (ROI) this season, and for his career, quarterback Josh Allen is 27-17-2 ATS (18.0% ROI).
He has been especially good as an underdog and on the road.
- Underdog: 14-6-2 ATS | 31.8% ROI
- Visitor: 13-5-2 ATS | 35.4% ROI
And as a road dog, Allen is an exceptional 8-2-2 ATS (45.0% ROI).
After opening the year on fire, the Bills cooled off over the middle of the season, but they’re 9-1 ATS (74.0% ROI) since Week 9 with an average cover margin of +12.6 points.
Add in the possibility that Mahomes might not be ready to play, and I must back the Bills. I like them down to a pick’em.
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Brandon Anderson: I have to do it. I have to take Buffalo here.
All season long, I’ve been waiting for the Chiefs to get upset in the AFC playoffs. Their last eight wins have come by less than a touchdown. This team continues to pull out wins late, but rarely covers or wins comfortably. And with Patrick Mahomes, that’s usually okay.
Obviously Mahomes is the big variable, and his availability is why I’m jumping on the Bills right away.
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This line is a slight hedge in case Mahomes is out, but not enough. The lookahead line on this game was Chiefs -3.5. Moving this a point or two is just no man’s land. It means there is now serious value available, because Mahomes is sure as heck worth a lot more than a point or two.
I’m skeptical that Mahomes plays. The Chiefs got their Super Bowl last year, and with Mahomes healthy long term, they are likely to have more chances. You never know for sure, but you have to make the long term play if you’re Kansas City. If there’s any risk whatsoever, Mahomes sits. And if he does, I definitely like Buffalo and would bet this aggressively.
The key is that I might be picking Buffalo even if Mahomes does play. First, we may not get 100% of Mahomes, and any slight hit now could be more Chad Henne. But, I mean, I might have been playing Buffalo even with Mahomes fully healthy — while the Chiefs have been squeaking out wins of late, the Bills averaged 38 points over the second half of the season.
This offense can hurt the Chiefs and light them up down the field the way the Raiders and others teams did at points throughout the regular season. The Bills are also a much better defense than the Browns, and they’ll have a far better chance of containing the Chiefs — especially if it’s Henne.
I have to play the Bills. As a fan, I want to see Mahomes healthy and out there. But as a bettor, I have to play the odds, and the odds say I’m getting Bills value. Especially at +3, I can still cover even with a very close Chiefs win, the type they keep getting every week.
I’ll play Buffalo as a dog early in the week until there’s Mahomes news. If the line gets to a pick or favors Buffalo, I’ll have to reconsider at that point.
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