Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images. Pictured: Head coach Doug Pederson of the Philadelphia Eagles talks with quarterback Jalen Hurts #2
Saturday’s NFL slate may only feature three matchups, but those three games are loaded with value. And according to our NFL PRO Report, Sunday is popping with smart betting opportunities as well.
With this in mind, let’s turn to The Action Network’s PRO betting tools to pinpoint Sunday’s savviest plays, including:
- Atlanta Falcons vs. Kansas City Chiefs (1 p.m. ET, FOX)
- Philadelphia Eagles vs. Dallas Cowboys (4:25 p.m. ET, FOX)
NFL Picks: Falcons vs. Chiefs
Sharp Action
Welcome to your classic showdown of sharp vs. square bettors.
The Falcons vs. Chiefs over/under peaked at 54.5 at BetMGM, but five instances of sharp action, triggered by Sports Insights’ Bet Signals, have pushed this number back to 53.5 (click here for the latest NFL odds).
Big Money
So about that public money …
Our NFL betting data reports 82% of bets on the total hitting the Falcons vs. Chiefs over. In addition, 74% of the money is landing on that side of the total.
Public bettors are clearly banking on a high-scoring game — as is the majority of the money. Nonetheless, the slight bets-vs.-dollar discrepancy tells us that the under is the preferred target of the bigger bets.
PRO Systems
Winds of 12-14 mph are expected at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday, qualifying this under for our High Winds PRO Betting System, which has a 56% win rate since 2003.
PRO Report Pick: Under 53.5
NFL Picks: Eagles vs. Cowboys
Sharp Action
The Eagles vs. Cowboys total opened at 49.5 at DraftKings, which is actually where the number sits at the time of writing.
However, this over/under did creep up to 50 earlier in the week, and that’s when the wiseguys struck.
SI’s Bet Signals are reporting two instances of smart money hitting the under, pushing it back down to 49.5.
Big Money
As is typically the case, sharp action is backed by big bets, and that’s what we’re seeing with Eagles vs. Cowboys.
Seventy-four percent of the loot has landed on the under on just 46% of the bets, a tell-tale sign that the money is much more one-sided than the ticket percentages suggest.
PRO Systems
Eagles vs. Cowboys also matches our Divisional Unders PRO Betting System, which pinpoints inflated totals later in the season in matchups between divisional opponents.
Unders in this spot are 205-128-4 (62%) since 2005.
PRO Report Pick: 49.5