Wesley Hitt/Getty Images. Pictured: Derrick Henry
Colts vs. Titans Odds
| Colts Odds | +6 |
| Titans Odds | -6 |
| Moneyline | +205/-255 |
| Over/Under | 47 |
| Time | 1 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
| Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here. | |
The winless Colts are moderate road underdogs in Tennessee this weekend. Plagued with training camp injuries that bled into the regular season, opening their schedule against the Rams and Seahawks did the Colts no favors.
The Titans, meanwhile, are looking to keep the momentum rolling. They overcame a 24-9 halftime deficit to beat the Seahawks in overtime last week. After six disappointing quarters offensively, we finally saw glimpses of the explosive offense we expected heading into the year.
So where’s the value on this matchup? Let’s find out.
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The Colts’ Injury & Defensive Issues
The big story for the Colts is the health status of quarterback Carson Wentz. He was a limited participant Friday in practice and is deemed questionable.
With two sprained ankles, it’s entirely possible Wentz plays, but at less than 100%. He’s not known as a super-mobile quarterback, but he averaged north of five carries per game on the ground last season. If he’s a statue back there, it’s not optimal for the Colts offense.
The Colts have struggled against the pass so far this season, ranking 29th in Football Outsiders’ DVOA. However, they faced a resurgent Matthew Stafford and Russell Wilson, so I think it’s fair to give them a pass.
Their secondary ranked 13th heading into the season by PFF. They’ve done better against the run, allowing a middling 4.3 yards per carry, but that unit will be put to the test this week against Derrick Henry.
Outlook For Titans Defense
While all the preseason talk centered on the acquisition of Julio Jones, last week proved that this is still Henry’s offense.
“De-Hember” came early this year, as the big dog erupted for 237 all-purpose yards and three scores last week. The Titans have included him more in the passing game, targeting him 10 times through the first two weeks, which makes their offense even stronger.
On the defensive side of the ball, the Titans have been as bad as expected. They rank 30th in DVOA and are allowing 34 points per game.
Like the Colts, they opened the season against two explosive NFC West offenses, though. The Cardinals and Seahawks are going to score a lot of points this year against everybody.
I don’t think the Titans will field a good defense this season, but they should end up better than they’ve looked entering Week 3.
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Colts-Titans Pick
This game has an over/under of 48 at some books, a number I think is inflated due to the tough draws both teams have faced.
There are more ways for this game to go under the total than over.
The Titans have played at the seventh-slowest situation-neutral pace in the league so far this year; the Colts are 32nd. The Wentz injury adds another element — if he’s less than full strength, the best strategy for the Colts might just be to slow the game down as much as possible.
The total of 48 points is probably a solid mean outcome. If the Titans open it up with their passing game early and the Colts are forced to match them, it could go way over the total. However, it’s too high of a median number — there are simply more scenarios in which this game falls short.
Pick: Under down to 48
» Compare real-time NFL odds here
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