NFL Odds: Titans vs. Texans

Titans Odds	-7.5 [BET NOW]
Texans Odds	+7.5 [BET NOW]
Over/Under	55.5 [BET NOW]
Time	4:25 p.m. ET
TV	CBS
Odds as of Saturday and via BetMGM, where you can bet $1 on the Titans or Texans moneyline to win $100 if they win.

Week 17 is all about incentives, and the incentives are very clear in this game. The Tennessee Titans are playing with their backs up against the wall. The Titans need to win here, or their season may be over. Tennessee will view this as a playoff game.

The Titans win the division with a win here, and that’s been the team’s No. 1 goal all season. A division win guarantees the Titans a home playoff game next week against one of four potential AFC opponents. A loss and the Titans can still get into the playoffs, but only with some help from one of the teams they are competing with, and if those teams all win, the Titans will miss out entirely.

Houston has no such stakes. The Texans are 4-11 and playing for nothing but pride and draft position at this point. Houston started its season 1-6 and fired Bill O’Brien after a long stay together.

The Texans have managed to hang around games without finishing the job, tallying seven losses this season by one score. Houston has become one of those teams that sticks around but finds a way to lose in the end.

The Texans are trying to end their season on a better note, while the Titans are hoping to keep their season alive. Who will come out on top?

Tennessee Titans

The Titans can look invincible at times, and at other times they’ve practically been a doormat.

Tennessee ranks third in the league with 30.0 PPG, and they were No. 1 before last week’s tepid showing in the snow. The Titans have scored 30 or more points nine times already this season and hung 42 on these Texans a couple months ago in an overtime win.

Tennessee has been all offense and not much else. The Titans rank third in Football Outsiders’ offensive DVOA metrics but are bottom-five on both defense and special teams.

The Titans have led a balanced attack offensively. They rank in the top four in both rushing and passing DVOA on that side of the ball. Derrick Henry wears defenses down as the game goes along, and Ryan Tannehill continues to dial it up and hit A.J. Brown and Corey Davis on big pass plays down the field.

When the Titans can control the game script and play their game, this Art Smith offense can put up a ton of points.

The problem is that they continue to need to do just that, because the Titans have also allowed 30 or more points seven times. They gave up 40 last Sunday night to a Packers team that looked like it could have chosen its number.

The Browns put up 41 on Tennessee a month ago, with most of the points coming in the first half. These Texans scored 36 in Nashville in October. The Titans have been especially bad in pass defense, rating among the worst teams in the league.

It’s very simple with Tennessee: They don’t play well on defense or special teams, so they’re going to have to hang a big number on the opponent to win.

Houston Texans

In some ways, the Texans are much like the Titans. Houston has had some very good moments offensively but ranks even worse defensively. The Texans just don’t have enough talent left on defense, and the other thing that separates the two teams is Derrick Henry.

Deshaun Watson has been brilliant throwing the ball for Houston, but the Texans can’t run the ball, not like Tennessee, and not much at all.

Wesley Hitt/Getty Images. Pictured: Deshaun Watson

The Texans rarely get blown out, because even when the defense gives up big points, all that does is push this team to do what it’s already best at: Passing the football.

After two ugly losses to start the season, the Texans had only two more losses the rest of the season by more than one score. Instead, they’ve been much like the Los Angeles Chargers, playing entertaining football and putting up points but always finding a way to lose in the end.

The October game in Tennessee was the perfect example of this trend. Houston’s bad defense gave up two quick touchdowns and the Texans were down 21-10 at the half. But Houston ripped things open in the second half with a 26-8 run to take the lead with under two minutes left and even had a 2-point attempt that would have effectively ended the game.

But, because they’re the Texans, Houston missed the 2-point conversion, gave up a tying touchdown drive to Tennessee with four seconds left, and never touched the ball again as the beleaguered defense gave up the winning touchdown on the opening drive in overtime.

That was Houston’s season in a nutshell.

Titans-Texans Pick

This feels like a seriously dangerous spot for Tennessee.

The Titans have played down to their opponents often this season, while the Texans continue to hang around and give themselves a a chance to win — or lose, it seems — late.

Tennessee’s pass defense has been miserable this season, and Watson should be able to pass all over this team and keep up with the Titans scoring, just like Houston did the last time around.

The pressure is all on Tennessee here, while Houston can play loose and relaxed and try to play spoiler. You’d think teams with all the incentive to win in Week 17 may have been very successful in the past, but the opposite is actually true.

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This is a trap spot for Tennessee. The Titans need to win or catch a loss from the Ravens, Colts, Browns, or Dolphins. Three of those teams are double-digit favorites and could be coasting by halftime. The pressure on Tennessee will only increases from there if this game stays close.

My spidey senses are tingling. Houston has hung around in games all season, and Tennessee’s defense is vulnerable. I’m playing the Texans at +7.5 to keep this thing too close for comfort, and I’ll sprinkle a small portion on the moneyline upset too to see if Houston can really blow up the playoff picture.

Can Houston shake things up?

Pick: Texans +7.5 and a small bet on Houston ML

Bet $1 on the Texans ML at BetMGM to win $100 if they win