NFL Odds: Texans vs. Colts

Having won four of their last five games, the Indianapolis Colts enter Week 15 at 9-4, tied atop the AFC South with the Tennessee Titans.

One of those wins was against their Week 15 opponents: the Houston Texans. Can this struggling Texans team play spoiler against the red-hot Colts

Houston Texans

The Texans enter this game with a myriad of players not making the trip to Indianapolis. Running backs Duke Johnson (neck) and C.J. Prosise (ankle) and cornerbacks Phillip Gaines (knee) and John Reid (neck) will not feature against the Colts, while safety Lonnie Johnson (knee) is questionable.

Quarterback Deshaun Watson was roughed up in the Texans’ 36-7 loss at Chicago last week. He only threw for 219 yards and was sacked six times. Watson has now been sacked 11 times in the past two games.

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Operating without No. 1 wide receiver Will Fuller (suspended) for the rest of the season, the Texans are desperately relying on a returning Brandin Cooks bolstering a stalling passing attack. Houston’s receivers were led by the undistinguished Chad Hansen last week, with seven receptions for only 56 yards. Hansen did have 101 receiving yards back in Week 13 against Indianapolis.

There is growing frustration with tight end Jordan Akins, who has dropped several potential touchdown passes over the past few Texans games.

Running back David Johnson returns from the COVID/Reserve list but gets a tough matchup with the Colts’ strong run defense. Houston will be relying on Johnson heavily in this one without Duke Johson. David Johnson’s versatility could prove very valuable, but the 29-year-old has failed to top 100 total yards since Week 5.

The Texans’ 30th-ranked defense, according to Football Outsiders DVOA, will struggle to contain the Colts at home, and Houston’s 29th-ranked run defense will need the best performance of its season. The Colts ran the ball on 52.5% of plays in last week’s win and project for a positive game script as over a touchdown favorite.

Indianapolis Colts

The Colts are relatively healthy entering Week 15, with just three players listed as questionable. The biggest concern is defensive tackle DeForest Buckner, who suffered an ankle injury in practice on Thursday and didn’t practice on Friday.  Tight end Mo Alie-Cox returned to practice on Friday, and left tackle Anthony Castonzo was able to log two full practices this week, suggesting he’s good to go for this game.

In the Colts’ 26-20 Week 13 win over Houston, their offense was clicking in both phases. Running back Jonathan Taylor tallied 91 rushing yards on an impressive seven yards per carry, while quarterback Philip Rivers threw for 285 yards and two touchdowns. Both performances were even more impressive considering the absence of Castonzo.

Taylor has taken hold of this backfield with three consecutive top-12 RB performances, including last week’s overall RB2 performance. He has shown surprising efficiency in the receiving game.

Jonathan Taylor receiving

🔹 31 targets
🔹 31 catches

Taylor is the only NFL player with a 100% catch rate (min. 25+ targets) 🤯 pic.twitter.com/Oh14y7YMyg

— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) December 18, 2020

Taylor has a dream matchup against a Texans rush defense that has allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs and the most rushing yards of any team this season. Houston has also allowed the fourth-most receiving yards, setting up nicely for both Taylor and satellite back Nyheim Hines.

Wide receiver T.Y. Hilton has been one of the hottest receivers in the league with consecutive overall WR6 and WR5 performances over the past two weeks. He also has four touchdown catches over the Colts’ past three games. Along with rookie Michael Pittman, the Indianapolis receiving duo should see a repeat of their combined 13 receptions, 156 yard, one touchdown performance in these teams’ prior matchup.

The foundation of a strong Colts defense is their run-stopping efficiency. Indianapolis has allowed the 10th-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs even while playing a few games shorthanded.

The Colts pass defense has been strong as well, ranking sixth-best in pass DVOA per FootballOutsiders.

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Texans-Colts Pick

I’m taking the Colts at home to dominate both sides of the ball and win comfortably. The shaky Houston offensive line will allow pressure throughout the game, and the Texans run defense will be no match for the Taylor ground attack.

I like the Colts at -7 and would bet them up to -8.

Pick: Colts -7