NFL Odds: Steelers vs. Browns

Steelers Odds	+9.5 [BET NOW]
Browns Odds	-9.5 [BET NOW]
Over/Under	42.5 [BET NOW]
Time	1 p.m. ET
TV	CBS
Odds as of Saturday and via BetMGM, where you can bet $1 on the Steelers or Browns moneyline to win $100 if they win.

Is the Browns’ added motivation against Pittsburgh enough for them to overcome COVID-19 concerns and rebound from last week’s stunning upset loss to the Jets?

Pittsburgh Steelers

With the No. 1 seed and a bye out of reach, the Steelers will rest Ben Roethlisberger and roll with Mason Rudolph at quarterback. Center Maurkice Pouncey is also expected to be given the day off.

The Browns will be without cornerback No. 1 cornerback Denzel Ward and linebacker Malcolm Smith due to COVID. Both players rank in the top six on the defense in terms of Pro Football Focus grade, so these absences offset the advantage Cleveland would have otherwise gotten from Pittsburgh resting players to some degree.

The Browns did activate safety Ronnie Harrison Jr. from IR, which is a big boost considering safeties Andrew Sendejo and Karl Joseph are also expected to miss this game due to COVID.

_BookPromo=515

The Steelers are deep at the offensive line and skill positions, so a depleted Browns defense that enters Week 17 ranked 24th in Football Outsiders’ DVOA is a concern, even against a Rudolph-led offense. The Browns gave up 333 yards to the Jets last week — their second-highest total of the year — and allowed the Jets to play turnover-free ball for only the fifth time all season.

Cleveland Browns

Missing their top four wide receivers last week, the Browns offense was an unmitigated disaster against the Jets, gaining only 45 rushing yards on 18 attempts (2.5 YPC) while netting 254 passing yards on an absurd 57 dropbacks (4.45 NYA).

The Browns will be getting Jarvis Landry and the rest of their wide receivers back this week, so the offense should be at full strength with the exception of tight end Harrison Bryant (reserve/COVID-19).

The Steelers have the NFL’s top-rated defense in terms of DVOA, but are expected to rest linebacker TJ Watt and defensive lineman Cam Heyward. This puts a dent in a Pittsburgh pass rush that ranks first in the league with a 33.1% pressure rate, according to Pro Football Reference.

A Pittsburgh pass rush at less than full strength is good news for Baker Mayfield, whose 45.7 passer rating under pressure ranks 36th of 42 qualifiers.

Steelers-Browns Pick

The Browns could guarantee themselves a playoff spot with a win, but added incentive doesn’t tend to lead to improved against-the-spread performance.

Last season, the Steelers beat the Browns, 20-13, with Devlin Hodges starting at quarterback and without key players such as James Conner, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Pouncey and Stephon Tuitt, and the Steelers team that takes the field Sunday will be no worse than the 2-13 Jets squad that upset Cleveland last week.

According to our Action Labs data, Mike Tomlin is 37-19-2 (66%) ATS as an underdog in his career, including 12-3-2 (80%) without Roethlisberger.

Tomlin is also 9-8 straight-up as a moneyline underdog without Roethlisberger, and I went with Pittsburgh as a moneyline underdog in this week’s Action Network NFL Betting Podcast, so I wouldn’t hesitate to place a small wager on a longshot upset.

Pick: Steelers +9.5 (down to +7.5), +340 (down to +300)

Bet $1 on the Steelers ML at BetMGM to win $100 if they win