Photo credit: Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images. Pictured: Drew Brees
NFL Odds: Saints vs. Panthers
| Saints Odds | -5.5 [BET NOW] |
| Panthers Odds | +5.5 [BET NOW] |
| Over/Under | 46.5 [BET NOW] |
| Time | 4:25 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
| Odds as of Saturday and via PointsBet, where you can bet $20 on the spread or moneyline to win $125 if the team you pick scores. | |
The New Orleans Saints can clinch the top overall seed in the NFC playoffs this week with a win, a Green Bay Packers loss and a Seattle Seahawks win. Either way, they are firmly entrenched as an NFC playoff contender and are gearing up for a long playoff run.
The Carolina Panthers, meanwhile, find themselves outside of the NFC playoff picture and looking to play spoiler for their NFC South rivals.
Can the Saints finish the season strong and do their part to help lock down the top overall seed in the NFC?
New Orleans Saints
Running back Alvin Kamara was placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list on Friday and will miss Sunday’s contest after testing positive for the virus. Latavius Murray will get the start in his absence.
Linebacker Kwon Alexander (knee) tore his ACL in last week’s game and will be out for the remainder of the season. Additionally, safety Marcus Williams (ankle) has been ruled out for Week 17 and is week-to-week heading into the playoffs.
Quarterback Drew Brees will be without his top two weapons on Sunday with Kamara having been ruled out and wide receiver Michael Thomas on injured reserve with an ankle injury.
Luckily, the matchup should not present much of a challenge otherwise, as the Panthers come into this game with the 27th-ranked overall defense (53.2) and 25th-ranked coverage rating (47.1), per Pro Football Focus. He’ll have to rely heavily on wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders and tight end Jared Cook in this one given the absences mentioned above.
Sanders has a strong individual matchup when lined up against projected primary defender Rasul Douglas. Per PFF’s WR/CB Matchup chart, Sanders holds a sizable 24% advantage when lined up against him. Cook will also have an advantage against primary defender Shaq Thompson, who comes into Week 17 with a low 50.7 PFF coverage rating on the season.
Murray has been a strong complementary piece to Kamara all season and should have an opportunity to show off against a Panthers defense that currently ranks 21st in the league with a -4.0% rush defense DVOA, per Football Outsiders. Murray is currently averaging a solid 4.5 yards per carry and has made the most of his chances, including a 19-124-2 effort against the Denver Broncos in Week 12.
Carolina Panthers
Running backs Christian McCaffrey (quad) and Mike Davis (ankle) have both been ruled out for Sunday’s contest. Curtis Samuel, Rodney Smith, Alex Armah and special teamer Trenton Cannon will likely all see some time in the Panthers’ backfield in their absence.
Quarterback Teddy Bridgewater will have a tough task on Sunday against the Saints fourth-ranked pass defense DVOA (per Football Outsiders).
He’ll also be playing without the benefit of his top two checkdown options in McCaffrey and Davis, which will make things even more difficult against a Saints team that also ranks eighth in the NFL with a 79.0 PFF pass rush rating.
William Purnell/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Teddy Bridgewater.He’ll need to be able to get the ball to his playmaking wide receivers DJ Moore and Robby Anderson quickly if the Panthers hope to keep up in this one. Moore, in particular, has a strong matchup when lined up against Saints top corner Marshon Lattimore, projected to be his primary defender. Moore holds a 21% (per PFF’s WR/CB Matchup chart) and torched this same defense in Week 7 with a 4-93-2 line.
With fewer playmakers available for the Panthers this time around, however, count on the Saints to focus their efforts around containing Moore and Anderson on the outside.
Saints-Panthers Pick
The Saints have proven all season that they can get the job done in different ways. With the possibility of earning the top overall seed in the NFC playoffs on the line, I’m counting on them to do it again.
That said, a 5.5-point spread is large for a team that will be without their top playmakers Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas. While the Panthers are also short-handed, they’ve utilized their run-first approach and moved the ball well enough to keep their games close. In fact, over their last four games, the average final score margin has been just 5.25 points.
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Curtis Samuel has proven to be a capable runner out of the backfield, and I expect the Panthers to find creative ways to get him the ball in space again in this one. If they can execute and keep the clock rolling offensively, this game will be closer than the skill gap of the two rosters.
Sharp money agrees. Per our public betting data, just 36% of tickets are on the Panthers to cover, but an overwhelming 96% of the money is. That represents a substantial 60% difference between the two. We’ve also seen multiple reverse line movements from sports books that reinforce the same point – sharp money is on the Panthers.
I’m betting on the Panthers to keep this one close enough — as they’ve done over the past month — and am comfortable betting this down to +5.
Pick: Panthers +5.5
| Bet $20 at PointsBet to win $125 if the Panthers score |