Getty Images. Pictured: Russell Wilson, Aaron Donald
NFL Odds: Rams vs. Seahawks
| Rams Odds | +3 |
| Seahawks Odds | -3 |
| Total | 42 |
| Time | 4:40 p.m. ET |
| Day | Saturday |
| Odds as of Friday night and via The Score, where you can win $100 by betting on Rams-Seahawks. | |
The 3-seeded Seattle Seahawks host the 6-seeded Los Angeles Rams to kick off Wild Card Weekend. Given the familiarity between these teams and the uncertainty around Jared Goff’s availability, where’s the betting value?
Find our comprehensive preview below, featuring the following (click a bullet point to skip ahead):
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Rams vs. Seahawks Picks
| Pick Type | # of Analysts |
|---|---|
| Rams Spread | 2 |
| Under | 3 |
Our staff details how they’re betting Saturday’s game. Click on a pick type above to skip ahead to that analysis.
Rams Spread
| Analyst | Bet to |
|---|---|
| Stuckey | +3* |
| Matthew Freedman | +3 |
Stuckey: There’s lingering uncertainty regarding the Rams’ quarterback situation heading into this game.
Sean McVay won’t say who will start until gameday — that means we could see either the undrafted John Wolford make his second career start or Jared Goff, if he’s healthy enough. I make the Seahawks around 1-point favorites if Goff starts for the Rams, but closer to 5-point favorites if it’s Wolford.
I do think Goff has a slightly better than 50-50 chance to play, so my adjusted line is a tad below three after weighting for both scenarios. Therefore, I did take a stab at Rams +4 when it was still available, but like it down to +3.5 if Wolford is the starter or +3 if it’s Goff.
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Under
| Analyst | Bet to |
|---|---|
| Stuckey | 43 |
| Michael Arinze | 41.5 |
| Matthew Freedman | 41 |
Michael Arinze: There are no secrets between these two teams — this is a divisional matchup and the third time that they’re playing one another this season. Since 2005, when NFC divisional teams have met for the third time, the total is 7-2-1 to the under (per our Action Labs data).
In their two previous meetings, the Rams and Seahawks combined to score 68 points, and each matchup stayed under the total. Additionally, in their last eight games, the Seahawks are 7-1 to the under while the Rams are on a four-game under streak and are 8-2 to the under over their last 10 games.
The total is 15-7 to the under the last 22 times these NFC West foes have met.
Abbie Parr/Getty Images. Pictured: Jalen Ramsey, D.K. MetcalfThere are plenty of data points that support this under, especially given how stingy both defenses have been down the stretch, which I cover in further detail in my full game preview. And the Rams quarterbacks situation is significant, regardless whether Goff starts.
FanDuel still has this total listed at 42.5 as of Friday, and considering it’s already as low as 41.5 at other sportsbooks (compare real-time odds here), there’s a chance it dips further before kickoff. I’ll look to lock this in at the current price, but I wouldn’t go any lower than 41.5 points.
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Notable Rams-Seahawks Injuries
Tommy Stokke: One week removed from thumb surgery, Jared Goff is pushing to play on Saturday. He missed Week 17 after injuring his thumb during a Week 16 loss to the Seahawks.
John Wolford made his NFL debut in Goff’s place last week, doing enough to get the Rams a win over the Cardinals to clinch a playoff spot.
The decision is expected to go down to the wire: Head coach Sean McVay announced the team will not name a quarterback prior to kickoff.
Wolford has taken most snaps during practice this week to prepare as if he’s the starter. Goff underwent surgery with the hope he could return for this specific game.
| » Find latest updates in our NFL Injury Report « |
Most Valuable Rams-Seahawks Players
Our Director of Predictive Analytics, Sean Koerner, highlights the five most valuable players for both teams based on how many points they’re worth to the spread.
| Seahawks Most Valuable Players | Worth |
|---|---|
| QB Russell Wilson | 5.51 |
| WR D.K. Metcalf | 0.73 |
| WR Tyler Lockett | 0.53 |
| LB Bobby Wagner | 0.49 |
| FS Jamal Adams | 0.46 |
- Tre Flowers (-0.06) is set to return from IR, but D.J. Reed (+0.13) has played lights-out and will likely remain Seattle’s starting cornerback.
- D.K. Metcalf (+0.73) is already one of the most valuable wide receivers in the NFL. He enters Year 3 next season, which is typically when a wide out enters his prime. I expect him to be worth 1-1.5 points against the spread over the next few seasons.
- Jamal Adams (+0.46) had a bit of a slow start as a Seahawk. He has the potential to be worth 0.5-1 point against the spread when he’s playing at his peak, which he is right now.
| Rams Most Valuable Players | Worth |
|---|---|
| QB Jared Goff | 2.53 |
| DT Aaron Donald | 0.98 |
| FS John Johnson III | 0.61 |
| WR Robert Woods | 0.6 |
| WR Cooper Kupp | 0.58 |
- Jared Goff (+2.53) is worth about 3.5-4 points over backup QB John Wolford (-0.74). Head coach Sean McVay is one of the reasons why the drop-off may not be as severe.
- Aaron Donald (+0.98) is worth 1-1.5 points against the spread. He’s the only defensive player who could be worth two full points depending on the matchup and what numbers it would cross.
- Andrew Whitworth (+0.40) could return for the playoffs, sending Joseph Noteboom (-0.22) back to the bench. That would be a massive boost to the offense.
Rams-Seahawks WR/CB Matchups
Wide receiver vs. cornerback matchups might be the most important individual matchups in football. Read senior NFL analyst Matthew Freedman’s breakdown of the expected matchups this Saturday.
| WR | CB | Designation |
|---|---|---|
| D.K. Metcalf | Jalen Ramsey | Large downgrade |
| Tyler Lockett | Troy Hill | Moderate downgrade |
| David Moore | Darius Williams | Moderate downgrade |
| Robert Woods | Shaquill Griffin | No impact |
| Cooper Kupp | Ugo Amadi | Moderate upgrade |
| Josh Reynolds | D.J. Reed Jr. | Small downgrade |