NFL Odds: Patriots vs. Dolphins

Patriots Odds	+1 [BET NOW]
Dolphins Odds	-1 [BET NOW]
Over/Under	41.5 [BET NOW]
Kickoff	1 p.m. ET
TV	CBS
Odds as of Saturday night and via PointsBet, where you can bet $20 on the Patriots or Dolphins to win $125 if they score.

The Miami Dolphins can essentially end the New England Patriots’ playoff hopes, and keep their own playoff hopes alive, with a win on Sunday.

The Dolphins were defeated by the Chiefs last weekend, but were able to pick off Patrick Mahomes three times. With the Ravens winning on Monday night, they are now tied with the Dolphins for the seventh and final playoff spot. The Ravens have a favorable Week 15 matchup against the Jaguars, so Miami absolutely needs a win on Sunday.

It’s pretty simple for the Patriots: They need to win out to have any shot at making the playoffs.

They were blown out by the Rams on Thursday Night Football last week, so New England needs to do better than 3 points on offense if they want to have any chance at winning on Sunday.

New England Patriots

Offense

Cam Newton has really struggled since arriving in New England. He’s averaging only 7.2 yards per passing attempt and has five touchdown passes and 10 interceptions. That has led the Patriots to the bottom half of the NFL in passing success and explosiveness (per Sharp Football Stats).

The Pats are really missing wide receiver Julian Edelman, who is currently on injured reserve. But the bread and butter of their offense is the run game.

They are top-15 in both rushing success rate and explosiveness, averaging 4.5 yards per carry. It’s been a rotating cast at running back, but Damien Harris has emerged as the best of the bunch while averaging 5.0 yards per attempt.

Miami’s weakness on defense is against the run, so expect a heavy dose of Newton and Harris on the ground on Sunday.

Maddie Meyer/Getty Images. Pictured: Cam Newton

Defense

The 2020 Patriots defense sure doesn’t look like a Bill Belichick-led unit

The Patriots are in the bottom eight in both defensive rushing and passing success. To make matters worse, they’ve been one of the worst teams in the NFL against the pass this season.

They’re allowing 7.5 yards per passing attempt and are second-to-last in passing explosiveness allowed. Miami is top-10 in passing success, so the Patriots may be in store for a long day in the secondary on Sunday.

Belichick has a ridiculous record versus rookie quarterbacks and former assistants. But in my opinion, I think all of those stats should be thrown out the window because he had Tom Brady as his quarterback for all of those games.

Miami Dolphins

Offense

The reason the Dolphins are in a position to potentially make the playoffs is because of their offense.

Thanks to Ryan Fitzpatrick and Tua Tagovailoa, the Dolphins rank seventh in passing success, per Sharp Football Stats. However, they’ve struggled to break off big plays in the passing game, as they rank 27th in explosive passing.

However, the Dolphins may be without their top three wideouts and tight end, so they may have to lean on their run game.

Miami hasn’t had a consistent rushing attack due to a number of injuries to their backfield. Despite all of that, the Dolphins still rank in the top half of the NFL in rushing success and explosiveness.

New England ranks near the bottom of the NFL is rushing success allowed, so the Dolphins should have no problem moving the ball through air and on the ground.

Michael Reaves/Getty Images. Pictured: Matt Breida

Defense

The Dolphins have an opportunistic defense, as they rank fourth in the NFL with 17 takeaways this season.

Xavien Howard leads the NFL with nine interceptions, and has a chance to be the first defensive player to record double-digit interceptions since Antonie Cromartie in 2007. Outside of that, their defense hasn’t been great, especially against the run.

The Dolphins are in the bottom half of the NFL in defensive rushing success and explosiveness. However, they’ve stepped up the last three games, allowing only 3.5 yards per attempt. They’ll need to continue their high level of play if they are going shut down New England’s rushing attack.

The Dolphins’ secondary has been the strength of their defense, allowing only 7.1 yards per pass attempt. They should be able to dominate this game, given how bad Newton has been throwing the ball this year.

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Patriots-Dolphins Pick

This is a must-win game for both teams, but the Dolphins have been playing much better football than the Patriots over their last three games.

When you think of a Belichick defense, you probably think of it as being one of the best in NFL. However, this season has been a different story, especially in the secondary.

I have the Dolphins favored by 3.04 points at home, so I think there’s some value on them at -1, and would play them up to -1.5.

Pick: Dolphins -1 (-110)

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