NFL Odds: Panthers vs. Washington

The Carolina Panthers (4-10) are losers of three straight games and find themselves completely out of the NFC playoff picture heading into Week 16. Despite big performances from top skill players like D.J. Moore and Mike Davis over the past few weeks, the Panthers’ inability to close games has cost them a chance at the playoffs.

The Washington Football Team (6-8), meanwhile, find themselves in first place in the NFC East and need a big victory to keep pace ahead of the Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants and hold onto their narrow one-game lead in the division.

Can Washington take care of business at home and further solidify their playoff standing heading into Week 17?

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Carolina Panthers

Running back Christian McCaffrey (thigh) is doubtful to play in Week 16. Mike Davis will take his place and remain the starter for Sunday’s game.

Guard Dennis Daley (concussion) was placed on injured reserve this week, ending his season.

Quarterback Teddy Bridgewater has struggled to get anything significant going through the air over his past two starts. Despite a 68% completion percentage, he’s averaged just 7.2 yards per attempt and has not been able to find the end zone through the air.

He has managed to convert two rushing scores during that time, something that has helped keep those games close, but overall, the Panthers’ pass attack has been terribly inefficient in the red zone.

It will be difficult to improve on that this week against a Football Team defense that ranks second in the NFL with a -15.8% Pass Defense DVOA, per Football Outsiders. Their 80.2 PFF Pass Rush grade also ranks sixth-best in the league (per Pro Football Focus), another factor that will likely hinder any success the Panthers hope to have through the air.

Getty Images. Pictured: Mike Davis

Davis has had success at times as the starter this season, but he has been wildly inconsistent game to game. He’ll need to have a near-ceiling performance against Washington’s 13th-ranked Rush DVOA in this one if the Panthers want to keep this game close.

In seven road games this season, Davis is averaging just 3.96 YPC (yards per carry) and has yet to score a rushing touchdown.

Washington Football Team

Quarterback Alex Smith (calf) is questionable to play this week after practicing in full on Friday. He is considered “50/50” to play in Week 16, but he did take the majority of first-team reps in Friday’s practice.

Wide receiver Terry McLaurin (ankle) is doubtful after not participating in practice this week. Additionally, running back Antonio Gibson (toe) is questionable to play after being limited in practice throughout the week.

If Smith is unable to go, Dwayne Haskins will get another start at quarterback this week. Haskins has struggled to make any big plays since taking over for Smith two weeks ago, passing for just 346 yards on a measly 5.1 yards/attempt.

His primary check-down targets, tight end Logan Thomas and running back J.D. McKissic, have been the main beneficiaries. Each should have plenty of opportunities against a Panthers defense that has struggled in nearly all aspects of the game. Entering Week 16, they rank 29th in the NFL with a 51.3 PFF Defense rating, 26th with a 45.1 Rush Defense rating and 28th with a 40.2 Pass Coverage rating.

The return of Gibson would also prove to be a huge boost for this offense. While McKissic has filled in admirably over the past two weeks, averaging 97 yards from scrimmage per game, Gibson is a true game-changer.

Prior to getting hurt, Gibson had over 300 yards from scrimmage — including six touchdowns — over his past three games. Even despite missing the past three weeks due to injury, he’s on pace for over 1,000 scrimmage yards in his rookie season.

Regardless of who gets the start, the Football Team’s running game will have a distinct advantage against a Panthers defense that has struggled to contain the run this season.

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Panthers-Washington Pick

Despite uncertainty over who will be the starting quarterback for Washington, the Football Team holds comfortable advantages over nearly all aspects of the Panthers defense. If they’ve proven anything all season, it’s that they can find ways to get it done with whoever is healthy and on the field.

While Smith would be a small upgrade to Haskins, the offensive key in this one will be the Football Team’s ability to move to the ball via the run and check-down, something they’ve had success with under both signal-callers this season.

Using this same game plan, they should be able to control the clock on offense and limit the Panthers offensive opportunities with their stifling defense.

Sharp money has drawn the same conclusion. At the time of writing, 62% of tickets and 87% of money finds itself on Washington -1, a 25% difference, per our Sports Insights tool.

I’m confidently betting Washington -1 and am comfortable taking this all the way up to -2.5.

Pick: Washington -1