Photo by Todd Kirkland/Getty Images. Pictured: Julio Jones #11 of the Atlanta Falcons
NFL Odds: Falcons vs. Chargers
| Falcons Odds | +1 |
| Chargers Odds | -1 |
| Over/Under | 49 |
| PRO Projections | Falcons -2.6 | O/U: 50.4 |
| Time/Channel | 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX |
After returning to action last weekend against the New Orleans Saints, Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Julio Jones (hamstring) will not play Sunday in somewhat surprising news.
This, of course, has had an effect on Falcons vs. Chargers odds, so how should bettors approach this game now?
According to our NFL PRO Report, Sunday’s NFL Week 14 game between the Atlanta Falcons and Los Angeles Chargers is not only the best over/under value of the weekend, but it is also doubling as a smart spread bet based on our PRO Projections.
With out betting tools in hand, let’s dig in.
NFL Picks: Falcons vs. Chargers Spread
After Atlanta settled in at -2.5 for much of the week, this line has adjusted to a pick’em following Jones’ injury news.
Our NFL model sees this move as an overreaction, projecting the Falcons vs. Chargers spread to still be Atlanta -2.6.
The difference between a pick’em and -2.6 results in a 4.6% edge, one of the biggest of NFL Week 14.
PRO Report Pick: Falcons +1
NFL Picks: Falcons vs. Chargers Over/Under
Sharp Action
Similar to the spread, pros are employing a contrarian strategy with the Falcons vs. Chargers over/under.
Conventional wisdom says under is the play with Jones unavailable to play, but remember, that is already reflected in the current total.
Our tools have tracked three separate instances of smart money hitting the Chargers vs. Falcons over, and real dollars wagered line up as well.
Big Money
Sixty-three percent of bets on the total have played the over and the money is even more lopsided.
Eighty-seven percent of the loot (see money percentages for every NFL matchup) is on the over as well, confirming that sportsbooks will be rooting for a lower-scoring game.
Model Projections
And just like the spread, our PRO Projections see the reaction to Jones’ injury as too much.
Our NFL model sets the total at 50.4 for a 1.4% edge compared to the current market consensus of 49.
Savvy bettors can increase that edge simply by shopping the market via our NFL Live Odds page and locking in the over at one of the handful of sportsbooks hanging 48.5.
PRO Report Pick: Over 48.5