NFL Odds: Falcons vs. Buccaneers

Falcons Odds	+7 [BET NOW]
Buccaneers Odds	-7 [BET NOW]
Over/Under	50.5 [BET NOW]
Time	1 p.m. ET
TV	FOX
Odds as of Saturday and via PointsBet, where you can bet $20 on the spread or moneyline to win $125 if the team you pick scores.

Incentives always matter more than anything else in Week 17. More than injuries, more than talent, more than coaching and game plans, incentives reign supreme.

And the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will be supremely motivated to win this game.

The Bucs have already clinched a playoff berth and cannot win the division, so they are only playing for seeding at this point. On the surface, that may not seem like much.

But in the NFC, seeding is everything, because a Tampa win locks them in as the 5-seed, and the 5-seed gets to play the terrible NFC East division-winner. Win this game, and the Bucs will be comfortably favored. Lose and they could drop to a road game in New Orleans or Seattle, where they’d be sure underdogs.

The Falcons season has been over for some time now, but Tampa badly needs a win here. You could argue that the NFC 5-seed is the most valuable seed in the entire playoffs outside of the two No. 1 seeds.

This is as close to a bye as it gets. Tampa could rest Tom Brady and see what the playoffs bring, but they’d rather win here and rest him in the second half of an easy playoff win next week.

But can Atlanta play spoiler?

Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons are 4-11 but are much more dangerous than their record would let on. The Falcons have lost seven times by one score, including against these Bucs two weeks ago, along with the Chiefs, Saints, Bears and Cowboys.

The Falcons always seem to find a way to lose, but they also never make it easy on the opponent.

Atlanta started 0-5 but has been a respectable 4-6 since, even with a brutal schedule and all the close losses. The Falcons have been the same team in many ways for a couple years now. Atlanta can stop the run but doesn’t run the ball well at all, and can pass the ball but can’t defend the pass.

The Falcons rank top five in passing yards and rarely turn the ball over, but the defense has allowed the second-most passing yards. Atlanta will also be without star wide receiver Julio Jones again — he hasn’t played for a month with a hamstring injury.

The Falcons are good enough to stay in this game without Jones … and bad enough to blow it.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Bucs continue to look underrated and extremely dangerous. Even though Tampa Bay can finish no better than the 5-seed, the Bucs rank second in the NFL in Football Outsiders’ weighted DVOA, which measures the overall strength of a team with an emphasis on more recent games.

The Bucs also rank first in Pro Football Reference’s Simple Rating System, another overall measurement.

The Bucs are really good, and they’re good at almost everything.

Tampa Bay ranks fourth in DVOA on both offense and defense. The defense has been the more consistent unit and ranks first in the NFL at stopping the run, though that strength is lost on a Falcons team that can’t run the ball anyway.

Tampa ranks top-five against the pass in DVOA, too, and its pass offense also ranks top-five.

It’s that passing attack with Brady, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski that should be enough to win the day against an overwhelmed Atlanta pass defense.

Nic Antaya/Getty Images. Pictured: Mike Evans, Tom Brady

The Bucs are an excellent football team. When Tampa is good, it is really good. The Bucs crushed the Packers earlier this season — Green Bay’s only really bad game of the year — and a win here could set Tampa up with a rematch at Lambeau in Round 2. The Bucs also scored 45 or more points three times this season, against the Raiders, Panthers and Lions.

When the Bucs are right, they can be absolutely deadly. But that Packers win is also Tampa’s only win against a winning team all year, as the Bucs are 1-5 overall in such games.

Then again, that includes losses by 1, 3 and 3. Tampa’s only real bugaboo has been a poor special teams unit and two disastrous games against the division-rival Saints. But the Falcons aren’t the Saints.

Falcons-Buccaneers Pick

Atlanta tends to play teams close before falling late, and it’s done that time and again this season.

This division rivalry has a similar history. Eight of the last 11 meetings between these teams has been within one score, and Atlanta has actually won six of the last eight games between them.

The Bucs have to have this win, and they’re very good and have the ability to blow these Falcons out, but recent history tells us Atlanta could stay in this game and make things interesting.

There’s also one other wrinkle — if the Rams lose to the Cardinals in another game, the Bucs will lock into the 5-seed regardless of their outcome. Considering LA is playing a backup quarterback who’s never played before, there’s always the chance the Rams could be getting blown out at halftime and that that could push Tampa to rest its own guys in the second half.

This stuff is complicated.

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I like the Bucs, and I feel pretty good about Tampa Bay doing what it has to in order to secure the No. 5 seed. But that could mean a close win that doesn’t cover, or even a loss, if the Rams lose ugly.

If Atlanta takes a lead here, I’ll be looking to live bet the Bucs moneyline in-game if I can get that around even odds.

But I have a better play here. I’m playing the Bucs by grabbing Tampa’s Super Bowl odds. If I’m confident the Bucs wrap up the 5-seed, then I’m also more confident of Tampa Bay surviving next weekend than any other team.

That also likely sends them to Green Bay, a matchup the Bucs have shown they can handle, and Tampa played the Chiefs within a field goal a month ago too.

As a 5-seed, it’s entirely conceivable that the Bucs are the biggest threat to win the Super Bowl outside of the top-seeded Chiefs and Packers. I’m playing my confidence in the Bucs by grabbing their +1200 Super Bowl odds, behind the Saints, Bills and Seahawks, all of whom will face tougher roads ahead than fifth-seeded Tampa.

The Bucs will beat an outmatched NFC East opponent next week, and once they’re down to the final eight teams, you won’t find anything close to +1200. Play Tampa ML live if you get a good look, but otherwise look big picture on this one and see if Tom can get one more ring.

Pick: Tampa Bay to win the Super Bowl +1200

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