NFL Odds: Buccaneers vs. Falcons

Buccaneers Odds	-6.5 [BET NOW]
Falcons Odds	+6.5 [BET NOW]
Over/Under	49 [BET NOW]
Kickoff	1 p.m. ET
TV	FOX
Odds as of Saturday evening and via PointsBet, where you can bet $20 on the Bucs or Falcons to win $125 if they score.

The Buccaneers were able to walk away with a win in Week 14 despite being outgained by the Vikings. This has been a trend for Tampa Bay, as it has been outgained in four of its previous five games.

At 8-5 with the playoffs around the corner, the Bucs need to figure out how to have a more productive offense so the Tom Brady gamble isn’t a wasted effort.

For the Falcons, a Matt Ryan turnover late in the game cost them a Week 14 victory against the Chargers.  A hamstring injury to Julio Jones left the Falcons with just Russell Gage and Calvin Ridley as reliable options, and they accounted for 206 of 263 yards receiving.

Atlanta will once again be missing Jones this week.

With both teams showing lackluster performances recently, betting on either side seems risky. However, betting the total could provide value.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Since their blowout victories against the Packers and Raiders, the Buccaneers’ play has left something to be desired, and they have gone 3-3.

In that stretch, all losses have come against teams with winning records and all wins have come against teams with losing records. With three games remaining, Tampa Bay needs to figure out what holds them back against the better teams. Luckily, its final three games come against Atlanta (twice) and Detroit.

These are two teams they can try things out against but still should have no problem beating.

The biggest hole for the Bucs is handling the blitz. Brady has a quarterback rating of 78.8 against the blitz compared to 101.5 against a normal pass rush, per Pro Football Reference.

The Falcons will provide a good measuring stick for Tampa Bay’s improvement here as they rank top-10 in pressure rate, per Pro Football Reference.

Solving the blitz became more important this week after starting running back Ronald Jones was placed on the COVID/IR list. Without him, the Buccaneers’ running game is in the hands of Leonard Fournette and LeSean McCoy, both of whom average under 4.0 yards per carry.

Defensively, news that Jones will miss the game made the Buccaneers’ job much easier. While Ridley is the only major receiving threat remaining, stopping him will be no easy task.

Carlton Davis will likely be in charge of slowing down the Falcons’ young star. While Davis looked like the next great corner from Weeks 4 through 8 — he never allowed a quarterback rating above 65 when targeted — his play has fallen off in recent weeks, allowing quarterback ratings over 100 in four of the last five games.

Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Carlton Davis (24) of the Buccaneers.

Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons enter Week 15 after losing their last two games by one possession. They’ll have to get over some hurdles if they want to break that trend against Tampa Bay.

In his most recent three games, running back Todd Gurley has received eight or fewer rush attempts in each. This has largely been due to his lack of production, as he has averaged under 3.3 yards per carry each week since Week 5.

In his place, Ito Smith has been much more productive, averaging 4.6 yards per carry since Week 5. However, against Tampa Bay’s top-ranked rushing defense, it may not matter who has the ball.

With the run game limited, the ball will be in the hands of Matt Ryan to carry Atlanta’s offense. Unfortunately, in games without Julio Jones, this has not gone well. The Falcons average 313 pass yards per game when Julio plays at least 50% of snaps, but only 218 pass yards per game when he plays less than 50% of snaps.

With the offense in a bad position, Atlanta will need all the help it can get from its defense. Fortunately, since their bye, the Falcons’ defense has shown improvement, as their pass defense has not allowed over 250 yards.

The coverage unit will be without No. 2 corner Darqueze Dennard, but stopping Brady requires creating pressure more than excellent coverage. Thanks to Grady Jarrett, Pro Football Focus’ 10th-best defensive tackle, Atlanta will create the necessary discomfort for Brady.

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Buccaneers-Falcons Pick

At 8-5, Tampa Bay would need a large meltdown to fall out of the playoff picture.  With that cushion, addressing their deficiencies will be the focus of the next three weeks.

This will likely be a multi-week trial-and-error process. Until their issues, particularly against the blitz, are solved, this offense will continue to not be as dominant as it should.

Atlanta’s offense has seen a drastic drop-off when Jones is missing from the starting lineup. While Ridley has shown he can fill in as the lead receiver when Jones is out, no one has stepped up to fill the second option behind him.

With both offenses in shaky spots, betting the under on the total is the way to go.

Pick: Under 49 (down to 48.5)

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