NFL Odds & Picks for Broncos vs. Chargers: Buy L.A. Before This Spread Moves Again

James Gilbert/Getty Images. Pictured: Justin Herbert

NFL Odds: Broncos vs. Chargers

Broncos Odds +3 [BET NOW]
Chargers Odds -3 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 48.5 [BET NOW]
Time 4:05 p.m. ET
TV CBS
Odds as of Saturday evening and via PointsBet, where you can bet $20 on the Broncos or Chargers to win $125 if they score.

The Los Angeles Chargers achieved something last Thursday which they hadn’t all season — they won a second consecutive game.

Los Angeles scored the winning touchdown in overtime after the Raiders won the coin toss, but were forced to settle for a 23-yard field goal. The win was the just fifth of the season for the Chargers, and despite already being eliminated from the playoffs, they have responded well after a 45-0 loss to the Patriots three weeks ago.

The Chargers’ last two wins carry some significance in that both occurred by a margin of 3 points. The common narrative about the Chargers is that they’ve struggled to win close games.

Los Angeles will now hope these consecutive wins in a similar manner help to change the perception around the team and in the locker room. Ironically, we’ll find that the Chargers have actually done well against the spread when coming off games with a margin of 3 or fewer points.

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Denver Broncos

In Week 8, the Denver Broncos battled back from a 21-point deficit in the third quarter to defeat the Chargers, 31-30. Since then, Denver has won only two games, with just one victory in their last four attempts.

This was expected to be the season where Denver would determine if Drew Lock is their quarterback of the future, but his performances have produced mixed results.

According to ESPN’s Total QBR metric, which tracks each quarterback’s quarterback’s contributions to winning a game, Lock is ranked 26th in the league with a 51.4 rating.

What’s even more frustrating is that Lock has played well for some stretches during the season. In Week 14, he received his highest rating of the season, with an 87.0, and averaged a 79.0 rating from Week 11 through Week 14.

Lock has particularly struggled with turnovers this season. He’s near the bottom of the league with eight fumbles and he’s tied for the second-most interceptions in the league with 13.

In fact, Denver has the worst turnover margin in the league at -1.3 per game.

nfl-odds-picks-predictions-props-sunday-week-11-2020Justin Edmonds/Getty Images. Pictured: Drew Lock

Another issue for the Broncos has been their inability to sustain their drives when they have the football. Denver is ranked 28th in the league with a third-down conversion rate of 38%.

Part of what’s influenced Denver’s poor results on third down is their play-calling on earlier downs.

It’s almost no surprise that Denver is dead last in the league with a 42% total success rate on first down. This means that on first downs, Denver has often failed to pick up at least 40% of the yardage necessary to move the chains.

It doesn’t help that Denver is ranked in the bottom of the league with 34 penalties on first down. This often puts Denver behind the chains and further complicates their ability to sustain long drives.

This trickle-down effect causes them to lose the time of possession battle and forces their defense to stay out on the field for longer periods of time.

Cluster injuries to Denver’s secondary likely won’t help matters much for the remainder of the season. Just in the last month, Denver lost cornerbacks Bryce Callahan, Essang Bassey, Duke Dawson and Kevin Toliver II to season-ending injuries, while A.J. Bouye out with a six-game suspension. Denver has now been forced to elevate rookie Michael Ojemudia into a starting role.

Bradley Chubb, who picked up an ankle injury in last week’s loss to the Bills, did not practice on Thursday. Chubb has yet to practice this week and he’s currently listed as questionable along with starting defensive lineman DeShawn Williams (knee).

On the offensive side of the ball, back up running back Phillip Lindsay also did not practice this week and has been ruled out with a hip and knee injury. Denver’s other backup running back, Royce Freeman, is also dealing with a knee injury and is listed as questionable for Sunday.

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Los Angeles Chargers

It’s not clear if a late-season surge will prevent Chargers’ head coach Anthony Lynn from being fired after another lackluster season.

It’s not just that Los Angeles is losing games, but rather the manner in which they’ve lost them. Seven of their nine losses this season have been by one possession — with two of them occurring in overtime.

From poor clock management to special teams mistakes, the Chargers’ coaching staff has made a number of mistakes throughout the course of the season.

 

There’s no question that the Chargers have underperformed this season. Their Pythagorean expectation is that they should have won at least one additional game given the number of points they’ve scored vs. points allowed.

Los Angeles will now face a Broncos team that’s actually overachieved this season. Even if you take out the Broncos’ game against the Saints where they essentially played without a quarterback, Denver is a five-win team at best.

This game sets up as a classic revenge spot for Los Angeles after it blew a three-touchdown lead in the teams’ first meeting.

Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert comes into this game in relatively good form. He’s had a 78.2 and 85.1 Total QBR in his last two games, respectively, with a 68.6 average for the season.

I would expect Herbert to be able to move the ball against a Broncos secondary that is currently decimated by injuries. He’s been impressive in his rookie campaign, as the Chargers are fifth in the league with 272.9 passing yards per game.

Denver’s defense has really sprung a leak over their last three games, with opponents outgaining them by 1.8 net yards per play. When you factor in the injuries to key personnel on defense, in addition to an offense that is extremely turnover-prone, there’s enough to like about the Chargers in this spot.

As far as injuries are concerned, the Chargers will be without starting linebacker Uchenna Nwosu (knee) and Joey Bosa (shin/concussion).

Keenan Allen remains hobbled with a hamstring injury but was a limited participant on Friday and is questionable for the game. Last week, Allen was more of a decoy, as he was on a limited snap count and only caught one pass for 17 yards.

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Broncos-Chargers Pick

With two games left in the season, the Chargers look determined to keep their winning streak alive.

They have the momentum going into this game and they’re probably the more motivated side once you factor in the revenge angle. While the Chargers are always capable of imploding — particularly with Lynn at the helm, this game should favor Herbert given the injuries to Denver’s secondary.

I think the fact that Los Angeles has been able to win consecutive close games bodes well for their psyche in this matchup. In fact, the Chargers have actually done well against the spread coming off games with a margin of 3 points or less.

If effort is a big part of how teams respond after close games, I think the Chargers will put forth a representative performance.

PointsBet is still offering Los Angeles as a 3-point favorite while some sportsbooks have already moved the line by a half-point.

I’ll go ahead and lock in Chargers at -3 or better while it’s still available.

Pick: Chargers -3

Bet $20 at PointsBet to win $125 if the Chargers score

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