NFL Odds: Bears vs. Vikings

Bears Odds	+3 [BET NOW]
Vikings Odds	-3 [BET NOW]
Over/Under	47 [BET NOW]
Kickoff	1 p.m. ET
TV	FOX
Odds as of Saturday evening and via PointsBet, where you can bet $20 on the Bears to win $125 if they score.

The Minnesota Vikings and Chicago Bears look to keep their playoff hopes alive when they face off on Sunday in a divisional matchup.

Both teams have identical records at 6-7, but it’s the Vikings that currently hold the tiebreaker due to their head-to-head win percentage. There’s still plenty to play for, as FiveThirtyEight projects a 20% chance for each team to make the playoffs.

The Vikings and Bears currently trail the Arizona Cardinals by one game for the final playoff spot in the NFC. The winner of this game could move into the seventh position should the Cardinals lose this week.

These teams already faced one another in Week 10, with the Vikings defeating the Bears 19-13 with Nick Foles as the starting quarterback. Chicago struggled to move the ball offensively and Foles suffered an injury in the game, which allowed Mitch Trubisky to regain his job as the starter.

These teams are not that far apart, as evidenced by their identical records. With the Bears as 3-point underdogs in this matchup, there could be value in blindly grabbing the points.

Chicago Bears

Trubisky has started Chicago’s last three games, and while they’ve only won one of them, the offense has looked much more lively with the former second-overall pick at the helm.

With Foles as the starter, the Bears were averaging just 16.7 points per game and since Trubisky was reinserted back in the lineup, they’ve averaged 30.3 points per game.

One of the biggest challenges for the Bears this season has been their inability to run the football. Per TeamRankings, Chicago is ranked 28th with 93.2 rushing yards per game this season. However, in their last three games, the Bears have averaged 143.3 yards per game, which would put them eighth in the league during that time period.

It’s no coincidence that their improved running game aligns with Trubisky’s return to the lineup. His mobility around the pocket paired with the threat of him running the option offense adds another layer that opposing defenses need to account for.

If the Bears keep a running back in the backfield to act as a blocker, teams now have to essentially spy both Trubisky and the running back in case he sneaks out for a screen pass.

_BookPromo=113

In their loss against the Vikings, the Bears ran the ball 17 times for just 41 yards. That should explain how putrid the Bears running game was early on, especially when you consider that Minnesota is only ranked 20th in run defense DVOA.

Trubisky’s reemergence has the Bears offense humming again and they’ll be looking for some redemption on Sunday against their division rival.

The Bears have some injuries in their secondary with Buster Skrine already ruled out due to a concussion. Cornerback Jaylon Johnson (shoulder) and safety Deon Bush (foot) did not practice this week but both are listed as questionable for Sunday. Neither player is listed as a starter on Chicago’s depth chart.

Linebackers Khalil Mack and James Vaughters were both limited participants in Friday’s practice but are listed as questionable for Sunday. On offense, only Jimmy Graham (hip) appears on the injury report with a questionable status. Graham was able to participate in practice this week.

Minnesota Vikings

The Minnesota Vikings haven’t made things easy on themselves the last four weeks.

They somehow lost to the Dallas Cowboys at home and then needed late rallies in consecutive weeks to defeat the visiting Jacksonville Jaguars and Carolina Panthers. All three teams have a combined record of nine wins and 30 losses.

Last week, those close games seemed to catch up with the Vikings, as kicker Dan Bailey missed three field goals and an extra point during a 26-14 loss to the Buccaneers. Overall, Bailey has had a rough season, considering his 66.7 field goal percentage is the lowest of his career.

Perhaps what is most surprising is that head coach Mike Zimmer has given him a vote of confidence and elected to stick with him in what could be a pivotal game on Sunday that decides Minnesota’s season.

Divisional games can always be tricky, especially given the familiarity both teams have with one another. The Bears held the Vikings to just two touchdowns in their last meeting and they remain one of the stingiest defenses inside the red zone. Chicago is only allowing opponents to score touchdowns on 52.27% of their red zone opportunities.

Minnesota is actually tied with the Bears in this red zone statistic but they’re the more likely team to get beat behind the ball with explosive plays. Per Sharp Football Stats, the Vikings are ranked 30th in the league with 48 explosive pass plays allowed.

Minnesota will be without All-Pro linebacker Eric Kendricks for the third consecutive week. Kendricks has been dealing with a calf injury which kept him out of practice the entire week.

Tight End Kyle Rudolph will also miss out on Sunday with a foot injury, while backup running back Alexander Mattison is listed as questionable in his return from an appendectomy.

Bears-Vikings Pick

The Vikings are starting to show some cracks, but perhaps they’ve been there all along. This is a team that did start the season with a 1-5 record.

It’s problematic for a team to have kicking woes this late in the team. That’s a major concern for a bettor if you have to lay 3 points with a favorite. Missed field goals are essentially turnovers, and when you combine that with the 10 fumbles the Vikings have had this season, I think it makes sense to grab the points in this spot with the Bears.

Here’s something else to consider: Over the last four years, Kirk Cousins has struggled to cover the number when it’s a short spread around 3 points.

With a shaky Vikings kicker, every point will be valuable in this game, so I’ll look to back the Bears at the current number of 3 or better.

Pick: Bears +3

Bet $20 at PointsBet to win $125 if the Bears score