NFL Odds: 49ers vs. Cowboys

49ers Odds	-3 [BET NOW]
Cowboys Odds	+3 [BET NOW]
Over/Under	44.5 [BET NOW]
Kickoff	1 p.m. ET
TV	CBS
Odds as of Saturday evening and via BetMGM, where you can bet $1 on 49ers-Cowboys to win $100 if a touchdown is scored.

Sports fans have experienced just about everything this year. Yet, with two more weeks left in the calendar year, there was still time for one more surprise.

For the first time since the NFL’s introduction of flex scheduling in 2007, the Dallas Cowboys were bumped from the Sunday night game. They’ll now host the 49ers as part of one of the early games in a crowded afternoon time slot.

What once was a premier matchup of two of the winningest franchises in the NFL has taken a severe hit, as the Cowboys and 49ers have a combined 9-17 record this season. Each has been decimated by injuries, as evidenced by the two backup quarterbacks who will start in the ballgame.

Deciding on a side in this game is more like picking between the lesser of two evils. While I’m not sure I can trust either quarterback for the full 60 minutes, a first-half play could provide an opportunity to target a Cowboys weakness at home.

San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers (5-8) have one more win than the Cowboys (4-9) despite playing a tougher schedule. TeamRankings lists the 49ers with the second-toughest schedule this season behind only the Buccaneers. That’s quite the contrast when you compare them to the Cowboys are ranked 18th as far as strength of schedule.

Surprisingly, the majority of San Francisco’s wins have come on the road, where the Niners are 4-2 straight up (SU)  and against the spread (ATS). Over its last 10 road games, San Francisco is 7-3 ATS as the road favorite.

Those numbers bode well for a team that hasn’t been at its best during its recent “home” games. The 49ers and their families have had to temporarily relocate to Arizona due to a suspension of all contact sports in Santa Clara County as a way to combat a recent surge in COVID-19 cases. At this point, I think an away game is probably the best thing for the 49ers, as it would give a distraction from the move to Arizona.

Injuries to San Francisco have prevented them from playing their brand of football, which is centered around the running game. The 49ers’ top-two running backs, Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson Jr., have spent time this season on the injured reserve but are now back.

Last year, only the Baltimore Ravens had a higher percentage of running plays (54.07%) than the 49ers (51.39%). No other team in the league even attempted to run the ball 50% of the time. This year, there’s been quite a dropoff as San Francisco is only running the ball 41.02% of the time. This is more about personnel on the field as opposed to the Niners being forced to abandon the run in games where they were trailing. It’s important to note that their point differential is only -11 on the season.

One of the bright spots for San Francisco has been its defense. Per Football Outsiders, the Niners are ranked 10th in defensive DVOA. San Francisco is sixth in allowing their opponents just 5.2 yards per play and they’re eighth in allowing red-zone touchdowns on 55.88% of their opponent’s trips inside the 20.

The Cowboys’ running game which was once a strength of theirs hasn’t been as effective this season. Last year, Dallas was fifth in the league with 4.8 yards per rush but this season, it’s ranked 21st with 4.2 yards per rush.

As far as injury news is concerned, the Niners still have some starters on injured reserve like tight end George Kittle and quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo. They will also be without Deebo Samuel, who injured his hamstring on the opening play of their game last week against Washington.

Center Hroniss Grasu is ruled out with a knee injury, while cornerbacks Emmanuel Moseley and K’Waun Williams are both listed as questionable despite being full participants in Friday’s practice. Linebacker Fred Warner is also questionable, but he also practiced without any restrictions on Friday.

Dallas Cowboys

It’s difficult to find many stats that would paint a rosy picture for the 2020 Cowboys. Per Football Outsiders, they’re 27th in total DVOA and 27th in rush defense DVOA. Dallas also has a negative-0.5 net yards per play average compared to San Francisco, which has actually outgained their opponents by 0.4 yards per play. I think this stat really highlights the difference in quality between the two teams, especially when you consider that San Francisco has only one more win than Dallas while playing a much tougher schedule.

The Cowboys almost seem like the perfect opponent at the right time for the Niners. Dallas is seemingly last in every run defensive category: The Cowboys are last in opponents’ run play percentage, last in opponents’ rushing attempts per game, last in opponents’ rushing yards per game and last in opponents’ rushing yards per carry.

Dallas’ front seven has particularly struggled to set the edge, and that is something 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan will likely look to exploit with his creative run schemes. This game should provide a great opportunity for the Niners to rediscover their rushing attack and get back to a more balanced run play percentage — even if it’s only for one game.

Dallas’s defense is quite a dropoff from three of San Francisco’s last four opponents, all of whom are ranked in the top four of defensive DVOA. The Niners only rushed for 3.8 yards per carry in their last three games, below their season average of 4.1.

Dallas could be further hampered in this game with Elliott listed as questionable with a calf injury. He was been unable to practice in the buildup to the game. Like Elliott, cornerback Rashard Robinson did not practice this week and is also questionable. Safety Xavier Woods is also questionable. The only Cowboys player on the injury report that has been ruled out is backup cornerback Deante Burton.

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49ers-Cowboys Pick

Given Dallas’ woeful numbers against the run, I would expect to see a heavy ground attack by the 49ers right from the start.

I’m not too thrilled with having to pick a side in this game that features two backup quarterbacks. One option I would consider instead is a first-half play. If San Francisco is able to control the time of possession by running the football, I like their chances to have the lead at halftime. I think the Niners will also come out more focused given the success they’ve had on the road this season.

As for Dallas, things haven’t really gone well for the Cowboys in the first half at home. Our Bet Labs data shows that they’re 51-72-3 ATS for a loss of 25.71 units in this particular spot.

This season alone, Dallas is 1-4-1 ATS at home in the first half. BetMGM has the best number on the board with San Francisco as a -0.5-point favorite. This looks like a good spot to back the 49ers against America’s team.

Pick: 49ers 1H -0.5

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