Photo by David Eulitt/Getty Images. Pictured: Head coach Andy Reid of the Kansas City Chiefs
The NFL betting market is extremely efficient.
This means that because of the massive limits that increase throughout the week, gameday lines are sharper than those available early in the week.
Conversely, this also suggests that there is the potential for more value for NFL bettors who can take advantage of softer openers.
The Action Network’s NFL PRO Projections are designed to help bettors pinpoint and take advantage of these early-week values by comparing our projected odds to those available across the market.
When it comes to NFL Week 4 specifically, three bets jump out as the top edges to pounce on right now, including Browns vs. Vikings, Giants vs. Saints and Chiefs vs. Eagles.
Let’s go ahead and dive right in.
NFL Week 4 Betting Model Predictions
*Odds and projections as of Wednesday morning
Browns vs. Vikings Betting Model Prediction
- Current spread: Vikings +2
- Projected spread: Vikings -0.6
The biggest NFL Week 4 betting edge suggests that the wrong team is favored for Browns vs. Vikings.
The current consensus line is Minnesota +2 while our betting model projects this number at -0.6 for a very nice 4.1% edge.
Bettors interested in taking advantage right now can improve this edge even further by visiting The Action Network’s NFL Live Odds page and picking off on the sportsbooks at Vikings +2.5.
PRO Projections Pick: Vikings +2.5
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Giants vs. Saints Betting Model Prediction
- Current spread: Giants +8
- Projected spread: Giants +5.9
Whether it’s a follow or fade, the Giants always seems to be involved with the NFL biggest weekly edges so far this season.
Last week our numbers recommended taking Atlanta and the points before the Falcons won straight up, but this week the value is worth the home underdog Giants.
Our betting model sets the Giants vs. Saints spread at New York +5.9, a 3.9% edge when compared to the widely-available +8.
PRO Projections Pick: Giants +8
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Chiefs vs. Eagles Betting Model Prediction
- Current over/under: 54.5
- Projected spread: 52
The Kansas City Chiefs have stumbled to just a 1-2 start this season and our data indicates that its offense may still be a bit overvalued.
We set our projected Chiefs vs. Eagles total at 52, which is 2.5 points shy of the actual number.
But bettors willing to make a surely difficult play on this under right now are rewarded with a 4.3% edge, the biggest of all NFL Week 4 matchups.
PRO Projections Pick: Under 54.5
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