Fred Kfoury III/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: New York City FC goalkeeper Sean Johnson.
RBNY vs. NYCFC Odds
| RBNY Odds | +210 |
| NYCFC Odds | +120 |
| Draw | +280 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-145 / +115) |
| Day | Time | Wednesday | 8 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | FS1 | fuboTV |
| Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here. | |
The New York Red Bulls look to build on arguably their best performance of the season when they host New York City FC on Wednesday in the first Hudson River Derby of the season.
The Red Bulls enter the match following a 4-0 win at Inter Miami last Friday that was as dominant as the final score.
Meanwhile, NYCFC responded from an early deficit this past Saturday to complete a 2-1 away victory over FC Cincinnati. Valentin Castellanos’ team-leading 12th goal of the year was the game winner for the Cityzens in their first victory in four games.
The Red Bulls enter this meeting nine points back of seventh place and the final Eastern Conference playoff spot with 11 matches to play. The visitors sit tied on points with Orlando for third in the East.
This is a match rescheduled from Aug. 21 after severe weather made the field unplayable. They play a return fixture again Saturday and then complete a three-game series at Red Bull Arena on Oct. 17.
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RBNY Reverses Fortune Against Inter Miami
The Red Bulls’ last victory certainly defied recent form.
New York arrived in South Florida winners of one of their previous 11 games. Inter Miami carried a three-game win streak and six-match unbeaten run.
And yet it’s hard to imagine a more dominant performance than what the Red Bulls gave. They finished with a 27-2 edge in total shots, including an 8-1 advantage of those on target. New York held a 2.4-0.1 margin in expected goals as well.
Don’t take this as a potential sign of a greater Red Bulls’ resurgence, though. At least not yet.
Miami was also pretty awful in two games against D.C. United — the MLS team who comes closest to the Red Bulls’ high-press tactics — losing by a combined 4-0 margin over 180 minutes. The club also trailed, 4.4-1.4, in the xG battle over the two games.
Still, it’s promsing that RBNY’s top two scorers found the net in the same game for the first time this season. Patryk Klimala has now scored in back-to-back games for a second time. And Fabio’s brace was his first in the league.
NYCFC Still Searching for Consistency This Season
August came to an end with the Cityzens comprehensively beating the New England Revolution in a 2-0 shutout in what felt like a statement victory.
However, as has been the case often this season, that didn’t translate and carry over to their away form on the road.
NYCFC lost their next two fixtures via a 3-1 defeat at Nashville in a game where they didn’t score until the dying stages. Then came a 2-1 setback at New England after holding an early lead.
And they could’t immediately right the ship when they returned home, settling for a 3-3 draw against struggling FC Dallas in a match they entered as roughly -240 moneyline favorites, according to Oddsportal.
New York mercifully bounced back with a 2-1 win at Cincinnati, which failed to win for a 10th time in 11 games at their new TQL Stadium.
And if you believe in xG as the most predictive stat, NYCFC are due for some good fortune.
Their +19.9 xG difference is the highest in the conference and second highest in MLS. And they sit around five goals ahead of their +15 goal difference.
Betting Analysis & Picks
New York City FC is the more talented, better and deeper team, but their 3-6-3 away record (W-L-D) is about league average when the metrics suggest this is an above-average team.
The Red Bulls’ 5-3-3 home record is also close to league average, yet the metrics tell us this is a below-average club.
So, it’s really tempting to back the Red Bulls as a home underdog, either on the moneyline or a +0.5 spread bet. However, I wouldn’t go that route.
A trip to Red Bull Arena midweek — where NYCFC have actually played several home games this season due to scheduling conflicts — doesn’t exactly pose the same travel difficulties as a flight to Ohio or Tennessee.
Three of RBNY’s home wins have come against teams 10th or lower in the current Eastern Confernce standings. And NYCFC hasn’t lost on the road to a team as low as the Red Bulls in the table.
That said, I’m staying away from the three-way line here. Instead, I’m buying a goal and playing the total under 3.5 at -205 odds and an implied 67.2% implied probability.
There have been an average of 2.44 combined xG between teams in NYCFC’s 12 away matches, and an average of 2.33 combined xG between teams in RBNY’s 11 home matches.
On that information, you could play under 2.5 goals at +115 odds, but the total has gone over that number in eight of NYCFC’s 12 away matches.
By comparison, the total has reached four or more goals in just three of the 23 times between NYCFC’s 12 away days and the Red Bulls’ 11 games at home.
Pick: Total Under 3.5 Goals (-205)
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