New Mexico vs. Texas A&M Odds, Prediction, Pick: Bet Aggies to Steamroll Lobos (Sept. 18)

New Mexico vs. Texas A&M Odds

Texas A&M hosts New Mexico on Saturday and this might be the easiest opponent the home team has the entire 2021 season.

In three previous meetings, the Aggies are 3-0 against the Lobos. They have outscored New Mexico by a combined score of 124-42, with the most significant margin of victory being 41 points during the 2008 season.

After dropping two spots in the rankings despite last week’s win, Texas A&M should be motivated heading into this nonconference meeting.

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Danny Gonzales, who enters his second season at New Mexico, is looking to improve on the 2-5 record from in his first year. This group isn’t as talented as A&M’s two previous matchups; they depend on opponents to make mistakes to move the football.

That said, this will be the Lobos’ first game in a hostile environment, as well as the fastest pace of play they have seen so far this season.

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Lobos Offense

Quarterback transfer Terry Wilson was a 25-game starter in the Southeastern Conference, plus a two-time captain. Through two games, Wilson has completed 74.2% of his passes, hitting on 46-of-62 attempts for 556 yards. He’s also thrown six touchdowns and no interceptions.

Along with Wilson’s play, the Lobos’ strong and deep running game will be led by senior Bobby Cole, who rushed for 144 yards on 30 attempts with one touchdown a week ago.

Overall, the Lobos are averaging 30.5 points and 434 total yards per game, while maintaining a pretty even split of 289.5 passing and 224.5 rushing yards per game.

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Lobos Defense

Due to limited practice because of COVID-19 restrictions in 2020, Rocky Long’s 3-3-5 defense struggled for most of the year.

However, in 2021, eliminating the big play is a priority for the Lobos and generating more pressure on the quarterback. And so far, it seems to be working.

In their first two-game, they allowed an average of 21 points and 216 yards per game, specifically 166 yards per game passing and just 50 yards per outing on the ground.

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Texas A&M has one of the most robust defenses in the country but has work to do on the offensive side of the ball to reach their preseason expectations. The Aggies have allowed just 89 yards through the air on 25 passing attempts.

A&M quarterback Haynes King is out indefinitely after having surgery to repair his broken right leg, suffered early in the Aggies’ 10-7 win at Colorado over the weekend. Head coach Jimbo Fisher said Monday that King’s surgery to repair a broken tibia went well, but there’s no timeline for his return.

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Aggies Offense

Texas A&M will start Zach Calzada, who came on to replace King. The third-year sophomore struggled most of the game but looked a lot more comfortable on the team’s final two drives, where he led the Aggies on long drives both times.

Texas A&M ran for more than 300 yards on opening weekend, but the offense did have difficulty giving the running game room against a strong Colorado defense.

The team didn’t have a first down until just before halftime. However, in the fourth quarter, Texas A&M had 162 yards while limiting Colorado to only 13 in the contest.

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Aggies Defense

In the opening week, Texas A&M held last year’s top offense to just 10 points. The Aggies were able to keep that defensive pressure against Colorado, holding the Buffaloes to one touchdown the entire game and only 54 total yards in the second half.

However, they will see a very different look this weekend. The Lobos run the Triple Option, and they will use formations with one, two and even three backs in different alignments. They force you to play assignment football.

New Mexico tries to move you out of position, then create running and throwing lanes as they’re not going to move you off of the line of scrimmage physically. Texas A&M should figure it out, but it will be a good test for a defense that’s struggled so far with its gap discipline before SEC play begins.

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New Mexico vs. Texas A&M Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how New Mexico and Texas A&M match up statistically:

New Mexico Offense vs. Texas A&M Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	35	70
Line Yards	80	82
Pass Success	34	9
Pass Blocking*	12	72
Big Play	81	59
Havoc	89	31
Finishing Drives	105	8
* Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

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Texas A&M Offense vs. New Mexico Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	44	65
Line Yards	39	36
Pass Success	64	13
Pass Blocking*	66	8
Big Play	55	13
Havoc	61	13
Finishing Drives	113	57
* Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

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Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	30	67
PFF Coverage	5	14
Middle 8	42	68
SP+ Special Teams	68	41
Plays per Minute	80	77
Rush Rate	57.% (57)	49.% (99)

Data via College Football Data (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF & SportSource Analytics.

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Many people might be backing the Lobos here because of King being out for the foreseeable future, but I think Calzada understands the system better. And with the amount of talent around him, I don’t expect Texas A&M to struggle.

The Aggies will be motivated after a less than impressive performance in Colorado and look to make an impression that they’re worthy of their ranking.

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New Mexico vs. Texas A&M Betting Pick

I’m was able to get Texas A&M at -28 earlier in the week, which is good thing since the line has moved to -30 as of writing. I would still take the Aggies up to -31 (-115) as my top selection.

Pick: Texas A&M -28 (Play to -31)

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