William Purnell/Getty Images. Pictured: Cade Cunningham.
NCAA Tournament Player Prop Picks
Second Round: Sunday, March 21
March Madness is back!! We’ve waited two years for this weekend, and we’ve got big news at Action Network: Our handy dandy Props Tool is expanding to college hoops, and it’s killing it so far — already 16-8 through round one!
The Props Tool has been racking up NBA wins all season, with a hit rate over 60% and a 20% return on investment. Now we’re releasing it for college hoops, just in time for the 2021 NCAA Tournament.
For those who are new to this article, we’ll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NCAAB projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
Below, I have laid out three prop bets that I’m playing from Sunday’s NCAA Tournament late evening matchups, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
Note: All photos below are via Getty Images.
Justin Moore, Villanova
(5) Villanova vs. (13) North Texas, 8:45 p.m. ET on TNT
Villanova is supposed to be missing senior point guard Collin Gillespie, but it sure didn’t look like it in round one. The Wildcats beat trendy upset pick Winthrop with ease, handing the Eagles just their second loss of the season, and now they get an easier than expected matchup in North Texas after the Mean Green upset Purdue for their first win in school history.
Nova will certainly miss Gillespie at some point, but it may not come yet this game either. Don’t tell the books that, though — they keep bumping up all the Wildcat prop lines to make up for Gillespie’s absence.
Justin Moore averaged a perfectly fine 12.7 points per game this season. His scoring was a bit higher and more stable over the first half of the season. In those 12 games, he scored 13.5 PPG and had at least 13 points nine times. His scoring has dipped a little since, and it’s been far more sporadic. He’s down to 11.8 PPG in 11 games since, and he’s gone under 13 points in eight of the 11.
We’re betting on that trend continuing, even with Gillespie out leaving more shots for his teammates. We project Moore at 12 points, and it’ll probably be a close one, so don’t go too crazy. I’ll play the under to -125, and I like it at a whole number here since a push could be in play too, and not a bad outcome.
_BookPromo=1264
Cade Cunningham, Oklahoma State
(4) Oklahoma State vs. (12) Oregon State, 9:40 p.m. ET on TBS
Let’s end the weekend the right way, with another look at the freshman phenom point guard out of Oklahoma State.
If you tuned in to watch Cade Cunningham against Liberty, you probably came away a bit underwhelmed, at least early on. Cunningham tends to start slow, feel the game out, and get his teammates involved before finding another gear late, especially in close games. He finished with a pretty moderate line of just 15 points, five rebounds, and one assist. He was fine, but he certainly didn’t look the part of the future No. 1 NBA Draft pick he is.
Cunningham has been a surprisingly effective scorer this season, in part because his shooting has been so fantastic. What was a question mark coming into the year has turned into an exclamation mark, and Cunningham loves to hit that step-back jumper using his long stride to create room. Cunningham has had some memorable scoring games, like 29 in the conference championship against Texas and 40 in an overtime win over rival Oklahoma.
Those were two of only eight games Cunningham went over this number all season, though, and I think the books are pricing in our desire to bet a Cunningham over and see him put up a big line. I don’t desire a big Cunningham game. I desire winning bets, and I’m happy to play the under.
I like that there are multiple avenues to a win here beyond just a typical scoring night. Maybe Oregon State plays the Pokes tough or even pulls the upset, limiting Cade along the way. Or maybe the Beavers’ magic runs out and Oklahoma State coasts to victory, with Cunningham never really needing to hit that extra gear down the stretch.
The fun police may not like this one, but I have fun making money. I’ll play Cunningham under 21.5 points up to -135.
_BookPromo=245
Kalib Boone, Oklahoma State
(4) Oklahoma State vs. (12) Oregon State, 9:40 p.m. ET on TBS
Let’s stick with Oklahoma State for one more prop to wrap up the night and this glorious weekend of March Madness basketball.
Kalib Boone didn’t get to play much in the first-round win. Boone played only 12 minutes and recorded just four points and three rebounds, mostly a non-factor.
This isn’t the first time this has happened to the 6-foot-9 forward. Boone has averaged 24.8 minutes per game over the final 13 games, but his minutes have waxed and waned. The important thing is that the minutes always bounce back.
In January, Boone played only 16 minutes against Kansas. He had 21 points and seven rebounds against Baylor his next time out, playing 28 minutes. Then against TCU in February, Boone played only 12 minutes. Three days later against Texas, he played 41 and racked up 22 points and 11 rebounds.
Boone bounces back after these weird disappearing acts, and when he does play, he’s a really nice rebounder. In 15 games with over 20 minutes played, Boone has gone over 5.5 boards 11 times, hitting the over 73% of the time. When he plays, he rebounds, and so far this season, we’ve seen Boone rebound from this quiet games every single time.
We project Boone at 7.0 rebounds in a big bounce-back effort, giving this a 16% edge in our favor. I’ll play to -130.