Photo by Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Oregon State forward Rodrigue Andela (34)
The NCAA Tournament gets underway on Friday, and bettors are already getting down on First Four and Round of 64 games.
March Madness attracts flocks of casual bettors, with many backing mainstream narratives like 12-seeds beating 5s, trendy Cinderellas, top seeds ripe for upsets, etc., based on how they’re filling out their brackets.
However, those are all just narratives, and don’t necessarily correlate to betting value.
On the other hand, The Action Network leverages internal power ratings in order to created projected spreads for every college basketball matchup.
By comparing our projections to current lines, we can then calculate the biggest available edges for bettors to jump on, narrative-free.
And according to our College Basketball PRO Projections, one NCAA Tournament Round of 64 matchup is already popping with value.
Let’s dig into the numbers and examine which game savvy bettors should be targeting right now.
NCAA Tournament Betting Pick
The West Region’s fourth-seeded Virginia Cavaliers take on the 13th-seeded Ohio Bobcats in Saturday’s (7:15 p.m. ET, truTV) Round of 64 matchup.
Virginia is currently a 7.5-point favorite (click here for the latest NCAA Tournament odds) over Ohio, and our projections see plenty of value with the underdog.
We project the Ohio vs. Virginia spread at +5, translating to a B-graded, 6.1% edge for the Bobcats when compared the consensus spread.
At the time of writing, 71% of tickets are laying the points with Virginia, but based on our projection, don’t be surprised to see sharper bettors jumping on Ohio and the points in this matchup.
PRO Projections Pick: Ohio +7.5