Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Head coach Joe Pasternack of UCSB.
You hear something similar to this every single March: “You have to pick a 12 seed to beat a five in the first round of the NCAA Tournament.”
Obviously, this is narrative street at work as everyone is trying to sound smart about March Madness brackets at the water cooler.
If you want to blindly pick No. 12 seeds in your bracket, fine, it’s your bracket to do with what you please.
But from an NCAA Tournament betting perspective, we’re less worried about upsets and bracket busters, and much more interested in the teams that will cover the spread, no matter their seed.
With this in mind, I decided to leverage our Bet Labs database to test the “No. 12 seed vs. No. 5 seed” narrative to determine whether the 12s truly do overperform betting market expectations in the Round of 64.
After running the numbers, the results I found were quite unexpected.
NCAA Tournament Betting Trends
When I decided to look at the betting performance of 12th-seeded teams, I fully expected to find nothing there, meaning the No. 12 vs. No. 5 narrative was simply that: a narrative.
However, I was 100 percent wrong.
Since the 2005 NCAA Tournament, No. 12 seeds are 33-25-2 (56.9%) against the spread (ATS) in the Round of 64.
So yes, 12th seeds do actually overperform betting market expectations when taking on teams seeded fifth in the tourney.
In fact, with a profit of 6.19 units, No. 12s are the second-most profitable seed to bet on in the Round of 64 over this span, trailing just No. 11 seeds, which are 34-25-1 (57.6%) ATS for a return of 6.83 units.
Now, before you go blindly parlaying all of the No. 12 seeds, let’s take a step back.
This is still a relatively small sample size and not enough data to bet all of the 12s by themselves.
However, if you were wondering whether the 5s vs. 12s narrative has any legs, especially from a betting perspective, or already like one of the No. 12 seeds for other reasons, then maybe this is enough to push you over the top.
Here’s a look at odds for the NCAA Tournament No. 12-seed vs. No. 5-seed matchups:
- West Region: No. 12 UC Santa Barbara (+7) vs. No. 5 Creighton
- East Region: No. 12 Georgetown (+5) vs. No. 5 Colorado
- South Region: No. 12 Winthrop (+6.5) vs. No. 5 Villanova
- Midwest Region: No. 12 Oregon State (+7.5) vs. No. 5 Tennessee