You can’t do much about bad luck sometimes. That’s how I’m feeling this week with our NBA props. Yesterday I missed three prop hits, all of them by 0.5 points. That stings, and unfortunately, it’s not a new feeling.

Looking back at the 31 props I’ve played over the past week, 11 of them have come down to a 0.5 margin on either side, losing seven of them.

This stuff is hard, and we’re bound to get unlucky sometimes, just like we’ll get lucky other times. This is a marathon, not a sprint, and we’re still a very healthy 102-61-4 on the season.

Let’s hope the luck bounces back in our favor this weekend and see if we can get back on track tonight with two big men and a little-known role player.

For those who are new to this article, we’ll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.

Below, I have laid out three prop bets that I’m playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.

NBA Player Props & Picks

Gary Clark Under 7.5 points (-110, DraftKings)

Chicago Bulls vs. Orlando Magic	Chicago Bulls -2
Time | TV	7 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass

The poor Orlando Magic are just so very shorthanded. Jonathan Isaac and Markelle Fultz are out for the season, Evan Fournier missed a big chunk of January, and now Aaron Gordon is out for the next month with an injury of his own. The Magic badly need creation and scoring, but right now, as much as anything else, they just need NBA bodies.

That’s where Gary Clark comes in. Clark has carved out a small NBA role, first with the Rockets and now with the Magic, in his three years in the league. Undrafted out of Cincinnati, I always thought Clark would have an NBA role.

He was the AAC Player of the Year as a senior and filled up the box score as the ultimate glue guy do-everything defender, but he’s never been a scorer. Even that season, he averaged just 12.9 PPG, and he’s never really found a 3-pointer yet. Still, his ability to defend and play high IQ basketball has carved out an NBA niche, and now he’s starting in place of Gordon for the Magic.

The Magic badly need scoring, but it’s hard to see it coming from Clark. He’s only scored more than six points three times all season. Clark has made six free throws combined all year, and he’s never made more than one 2-pointer in a game for the Magic. He’s out there to be a fifth man, play tough defense, rebound, and shoot an occasional 3-pointer if he’s wide open.

With Clark’s minutes up, we’re probably getting four of five 3-point attempts and asking him to just not hit three of them, or two plus a rare 2-pointer or pair of free throws. We’ll leave the scoring load to guys like Nik Vucevic and Evan Fournier.

Fournier has been a favorite in this space, and I’ll be playing his over 17.5 points again at -110 on DraftKings. He’s over that in six of the last eight, and he’s the guy taking the shots on this team, not Gary Clark.

You never know when someone will randomly hit a few threes unexpectedly, but Clark is under this line in 16-of-19 games this season. Cross your fingers for a 17th and play to -125.

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Cody Zeller Over 8.5 rebounds (-120, FanDuel)

Utah Jazz vs. Charlotte Hornets	Utah Jazz -8
Time | TV	8 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass

It took Cody Zeller quite awhile to get going this season. He played only 19 minutes in the opener and then missed the next 13 consecutive games injured, which unfortunately is somewhat the norm for him.

The Hornets were very cautious with Zeller in his return, ramping him up slowly with 11 minutes, then 15, then 18. At that point, Zeller was averaging a forgettable 6.5 points and 5.3 rebounds per game, but he was also playing under 16 MPG.

Zeller finally got the start again on January 27 against the Pacers and responded with 10 points, 14 rebounds, and four assists. He’s started every game since and seen his numbers blossom to 11.4 points, 11.0 rebounds, and 3.6 assists a game, and he’s also playing 32 minutes a game.

It turns out Zeller’s production hasn’t really increased — it’s his playing time that has. He was producing at this same rate in half the minutes before too. Give the man 30 minutes, and he’s got a good shot at a double-double.

This won’t be easy. The Jazz are an outstanding rebounding team, and Rudy Gobert is always a difficult matchup for any opposing center. Zeller can get into foul trouble at times. But with P.J. Washington sidelined, the Hornets will have to continue to lean heavily on Zeller for big minutes with Bismack Biyombo the only other reasonable big man option.

And while Gobert is a tough matchup, his presence also pushes the Hornets to keep a center like Zeller out there, so it should give him more opportunity.

We’re projecting Zeller at 10.1 rebounds in 30.6 minutes, putting him comfortably over here. I’ll play up to -140. I’ll probably also play Zeller over 1.5 assists with the way his passing numbers are up, but that one’s only available at FanDuel.

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Deandre Ayton Over 12.5 rebounds (-120, FanDuel)

Detroit Pistons at Phoenix Suns	Phoenix Suns -7.5
Time | TV	9 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass

Deandre Ayton has had an up and down season, and the jury’s still out a bit on the former number one overall draft pick.

Ayton is not touching the ball as much with Chris Paul on this new version of the Suns, and his scoring has been very unreliable because of it. Ayton has only scored 20 points four times all season, and he’s been held to single digits five times.

But while Ayton’s scoring hasn’t been reliable, his overall game continues to improve. Ayton has made huge strides defensively since his college days and is now at the center of one of the league’s better defenses, and his rebounding has taken another step forward this season.

Ayton has the body of an Adonis and was always set up to be a rebounding monster, and the numbers reflect it this year. Ayton’s defensive rebounding numbers are way up, and he’s averaging almost 20 rebounds per 100 possessions.

He’s at 12.8 RPG on the season, a career high, and that number is on its way up. Ayton was at 10.7 RPG through seven games before a monster 16-board outing. He’s at 13.8 RPG ever since, with at least 13 rebounds in all but two of those 13 games. And those games were both 20-point losses that limited his playing time in a blowout.

In fact, Ayton has at least 11 rebounds every game this season in which he’s played at least 30 minutes, averaging 14.4 RPG in those games. And with the Suns grinding a bit lately and the Pistons having a knack for hanging around games until late, this should be a full effort from Ayton and Phoenix.

We’re projecting Ayton at 14.6 rebounds, and that’s right in line with his huge rebounding efforts of late. I’ll play Ayton’s boards up to -145.

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