Alex Goodlett/Getty Images. Pictured: Donovan Mitchell #45 of the Utah Jazz, Kawhi Leonard #2 of the LA Clippers.
We’ve got two Game 4s on the slate tonight, but we’re going to let Joel Embiid and Trae Young battle it out on their own in the early game and focus on the West tonight. We know now that the Phoenix Suns will play in the Western Conference Finals. The question is who will join them.
If the Jazz win tonight and go up 3-1 in the series, they’ll be heavy favorites to advance. But the Clippers are looking to come back from an 0-2 deficit to pull even at 2-2 for the second straight series, and it seems like Los Angeles found some answers in its Game 3 win. So how can we play that to our advantage?
For those who are new to this article, we’ll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
Below, I have laid out three prop bets that I’m playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Kawhi Leonard, Over 1.5 Steals (+110)
| Jazz vs. Clippers | Clippers -5 |
| Time | TV | 10 p.m. ET | TNT |
| Best Book | BetMGM |
If you’re going to tempt me with plus odds on a player nicknamed ‘The Klaw’ getting multiple steals in a playoff game, I’m always going to have to look pretty hard at those odds.
I don’t need to tell you what a spectacular defensive player Leonard can be when he’s locked in, and the man sure has been locked in so far these playoffs. Leonard was in god mode for most of the series against the Dallas Mavericks in Round 1, and he continues to perform at a high level against the Jazz here in the Conference semifinals.
In the regular season, Leonard recorded multiple steals in 24-of-52 games, just under half the time. But don’t forget how he is load managed in the regular season, playing fewer minutes and saving his best for these games that matter most.
If you look at only regular season games with at least 32 minutes played, that number improves to a 50% hit rate at 18 in 36 games. If you move the minutes minimum to 37, suddenly Leonard had multiple steals in 10 of the 15 games, hitting this over 67% of the time.
When the games mattered enough for Leonard to play big minutes and he exerted more effort defensively, the steals usually followed. You can close your eyes and imagine any number of his steals. Sometimes it’s a crafty slip or a well-timed reach, and other times he just physically outmatches the opponent and rips the ball away like it’s candy from a baby.
So far these playoffs, Leonard’s minutes are way up at 39.7 minutes per game, and there’s little question to his effort on either end right now. He’s played at least 38 minutes in all but two playoff games, and it’s probably no coincidence that he has multiple steals in seven of those 10 games, hitting our over 70% of the time and averaging 2.1 steals per game.
The Jazz have done almost everything right so far this season, but one area they haven’t been successful is the turnover margin. Utah ranks dead last in turnovers forced, by design, but they also had the 11th-most turnovers in the NBA, including 7.7 steals per game allowed, in the regular season.
At the end of the day, if it’s a key playoff game and you’re giving me plus odds on Leonard in god mode getting just a pair of steals, I’m taking my chances. I’ll play to -115.
Nic Batum, Over 1.5 Assists (-172)
| Jazz vs. Clippers | Clippers -5 |
| Time | TV | 10 p.m. ET | TNT |
| Best Book | FanDuel |
It sure seemed like the Clippers figured some things out in Game 3, and one of the things L.A. seemed to figure out was the same lesson it learned against Dallas. The Clippers are at their best right now playing small ball, leaving Ivica Zubac mostly buried on the bench, switching everything on defense, and opening up the offense.
Put another way, the Clippers are at their best with more Nic Batum.
I’m not sure why L.A. needs to keep re-learning this lesson. Batum was almost certainly the Clippers’ third best player in the regular season, but they have tried nearly any other possible option before turning back to him. They’ve tried Zubac to little avail. They’ve turned to Rajon Rondo before giving him zero minutes in Game 3. They’ve let Marcus Morris soak up minutes and shots before reducing his role some in Game 3 as well.
All along, all of us at home are wondering why the Clippers won’t just play Nic Batum and guard Terence Mann a bit more, and they finally did in Game 3. Batum played over 35 minutes in Game 3, up from 27 in Game 2 and just 21 in the series opener. This echoes the Dallas series, where Batum was minimized early and even played under 19 minutes in Game 2 before becoming a key rotation player late in the series as L.A. played small and switched everything.
Batum is a smart veteran passer, so he’s going to get some assist opportunities if he’s out there longer. In the regular season, Batum played at least 28 minutes in 28 games. He averaged 2.8 assists per game in those affairs, nearly double this line, and he went over 1.5 dimes in 22 of them, hitting this over a whopping 79% of the time.
So far this postseason, Batum is over 1.5 dimes in eight of 10 playoff games, even including that weird 19-minute game when he went under. We’re seeing Batum consistently go over around 80% of the time when he gets real minutes, and though -172 looks like a lot of juice to drink, an 80% hit rate would imply closer to -400. There’s little value going that far, but I’ll happily play this over to -200.
Royce O’Neale, Over 8.5 Rebounds + Assists (-113)
| Jazz vs. Clippers | Clippers -5 |
| Time | TV | 10 p.m. ET | TNT |
| Best Book | FanDuel |
With the Clippers playing every wing they can find as much as possible, you better believe the Jazz will need their best wings out there too. Hello Royce O’Neale, still one of the most underrated 3-and-D wings in the league.
O’Neale never puts up eye-popping numbers, but he’s a very good wing defender who pretty much always gets the first assignment against the opponent’s best perimeter player, and he does that for a top five defense so maybe it’s time to give O’Neale his due.
O’Neale has played 35.5 minutes per game so far these playoffs, and he’s put up 10.4 points, 6.9 rebounds, and 2.1 assists per game in those outings. Both the points and rebounds are career playoff bests by a significant margin, but the points are pretty variable on the 3-point shot. O’Neale has double-digit points in four of eight playoff games, and he’s made at least three 3s in all of them, but he has only five makes in the other four games.
Instead, let’s play the complementary numbers. O’Neale has at least six rebounds in all but one of the last seven games. He’s the de facto “power forward” for this team and is being asked to play big on the boards in addition to his defensive role. O’Neale is also a nice enough passer and moves the ball well along the perimeter to hit those open Utah shooters. He’s had multiple assists in six of eight Utah playoff games so far and did so in 72% of his regular season games too.
Our projections put Royce O’Neale at 7.5 rebounds and 2.9 assists. If you want to play this more aggressively or as part of a same-game parlay, you can go over 2.5 assists and over 6.5 rebounds at +138 and +104, respectively, at FanDuel. I’m going to play them together with a combo line that looks very reachable at just 8.5 rebounds + assists.
O’Neale has covered this combo line on rebounds alone 22 times already this season, including twice in the playoffs. He covered this combo line in 44 of 71 regular season games, hitting the over 62% of the time. Our projections put O’Neale at 10.6 RA and rate this a 10 out of 10. I’ll play the over to -130.
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