Michael Gonzales/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Los Angeles Clippers standout Marcus Morris Sr.
You can’t really write an NBA article these days without an injury update, so let’s start with that.
Los Angeles Clippers star Kawhi Leonard remains sidelined indefinitely and will miss Wednesday’s Game 6 of the Western Conference Finals, while teammate Ivica Zubac is listed as questionable with a sprained MCL that cost him Game 5.
Zubac’s absence opened things up for the Clippers, though, forcing head coach Ty Lue to go small and unlock this killer small-ball lineup. Even if Zubac does play, he might be limited — either by injury or by coaching —and that will inform our angles.
The Phoenix Suns are relatively healthy (knock on wood), although Devin Booker is playing with a mask due to broken nose suffered earlier in the series. Chris Paul is working his way back to full speed after his COVID-19 absence.
These NBA playoffs have been a war of attrition unlike any other, but just like the players and teams, we can only play against what’s in front of us. So how do we play them to our advantage?
For those who are new to this article, we’ll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
Below, I have laid out three prop bets that I’m playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Marcus Morris Sr. — Over 1.5 3-Pointers (-141)
| Suns vs. Clippers | Pick’em |
| Time | TV | 9 p.m. ET | ESPN |
| Best Book | DraftKings |
Marcus Morris Sr. was the biggest direct beneficiary from Zubac’s absence in Game 5. He had been starting most of the series, but finally looked mostly healthy again for the first time in a week or two, seeing his minutes leap from the low 20s all series to almost 39 in the Game 5 win.
That was probably out of necessity as much as anything, but it’s also because Morris was hitting every shot he took in the first quarter. He finished the game with nine field goals, his second-highest postseason total, leading to 22 points.
If there’s one thing we know for sure about Morris, the dude is not shy. He’s going to fire away without conscience, whether he’s hitting or not. If he’s out there, he’s shooting. And right now, the Clippers are so shorthanded they have no real choice but to keep Morris out there, for better or for worse.
So far, Morris has played at least 30 minutes 10 times. He’s had multiple 3-pointers in six of those games, hitting this over 60% of the time.
Morris is a rhythm player, with his shots tending to be better when he gets more up. In those 10 games, he’s averaged 2.5 makes on 42 percent. And what’s wild is that Morris is a horrifying 1 of 23 in the four unders.
That’s crazy, because it means Morris is averaging four makes in the six overs with an absurd 65% 3-point percentage. And it’s bizarre that Morris is averaging 5.75 3-point attempts even in the unders when he’s ice cold. Except it’s not wild at all. Morris is going to get his shots up, whether they’re falling or not. The volume will be there. We just need a couple makes.
In the regular season, Morris played at least 30 minutes in 14 games and had multiple 3s in 12 of them, hitting this over 86% of the time. Combined with the playoffs, that’s a 75% hit rate on this over with at least 30 minutes.
And if you’re feeling particularly greedy, you should know Morris has at least three makes in 13 of the 24 games with 30-plus minutes. That’s a 54% hit rate itself if you’d like to play an alternate line — Morris is +225 to hit a trio of 3s at FanDuel at the moment. He has actually made at least four treys in seven of the 24, a 29% hit rate. You can play Morris to make four 3s at +720 at FanDuel, an implied 12% chance.
Morris is not exactly an in-between guy. You need to know that it’s entirely possible you play Morris to hit two, three or four 3-pointers and instead he goes 0 for 9 from deep. That’s a very real possibility. You just also need to know that that nine proves you made the right bet and live with your results.
Shooters shoot.
_BookPromo=405
Reggie Jackson — Over 4.5 Rebounds (+122)
| Suns vs. Clippers | Clippers -1 |
| Time | TV | 9 p.m. ET | ESPN |
| Best Book | FanDuel |
Morris might be new to his bigger role, but Reggie Jackson has been the Clippers’ second star for a couple weeks. He’s been a stud ever since Leonard went down, and heck, he was pretty good before that. In seven games without Leonard, Jackson has averaged 22.6 points, 3.9 rebounds and 3.9 assists.
He’s playing like a star and he’s about to get paid as a free agent. He’s also playing massive minutes, a whopping 37.7 per game during this stretch.
Despite the high scoring average, I’m not betting on Jackson’s scoring. Like Morris, he can run extremely hot and cold. He’s had some huge nights and some clunkers. However, we know he’s going to be out there playing big minutes, so I’m counting on the volume and looking for some rebounds.
One of the most impressive things the Clippers did Game 5 without Zubac was their gang rebounding. While many expected Deandre Ayton to dominate with Zubac out, the Clippers actually played the Suns to a near draw on the glass; Phoenix had just one more rebound.
Paul George had another huge rebounding night as he’s done lately, but everyone did their part. Jackson and Patrick Beverley had five rebounds each, and Nicolas Batum added eight off the bench.
Jackson has actually had five rebounds in four of the five games now against the Suns. He’s one of the few players left with energy for Los Angeles, thanks to the newly elevated role, and he’s getting almost all those rebounds on the defensive glass.
During the regular season, Jackson averaged one rebound every 8.0 minutes, so that pushes this prop in our favor anywhere past 36 minutes. He’s right about at that number this series, at one rebound every 8.6 minutes. And he’s getting those minutes.
Jackson has gone over 4.5 rebounds in four of five games this series, plus we’re getting +122 odds on this bet. I’ve got to play it at any plus number.
_BookPromo=24
Devin Booker — Under 5.5 Rebounds (+100)
| Suns vs. Clippers | Clippers -1 |
| Time | TV | 9 p.m. ET | ESPN |
| Best Book | FanDuel |
In the regular season, Devin Booker averaged 25.6 points, 4.2 rebounds and 4.3 assists. In the playoffs so far, Booker is at 27.3 points, 6.4 rebounds and 4.8 assists.
Booker is playing 19% more minutes, so it makes sense his numbers would be up a little more across the board. His scoring is up 6.6 percent, while the assists are up 11.7 percent. Those are perfectly reasonable jumps for a guy playing more and well.
And then you look at the rebounds and see a whopping 52.4% increase. And I gotta tell you, I’m not sure there’s a logical reason for that surge.
Again, some uptick in rebounds makes sense. Booker is playing more, and heaven knows plenty of rebounds have been available in some of these games. Booker had that huge 40-point triple-double to lead off this series, which included 13 rebounds.
Games like that will certainly boost your rebounding advantage in a hurry. They’ll also boost your RPG too much in an outlier way, skewing the books (no pun intended).
Booker had a big Game 1, but he’s gone under 5.5 boards in four consecutive contests. He also went under this line in two of three regular season games against the Clippers, meaning he’s hit the under in six of eight games for the year now. That’s a 75% hit rate. He’s averaging 5.3 RPG in those games, but that drops to just 4.1 RPG if you remove the Game 1 outlier.
And don’t forget about Booker’s injury either. I don’t know about you, but if my nose was smashed and I was wearing a mask, I might be just a little tiny bit more hesitant to go barreling into the paint or fight for those 50/50 rebounds. That’s an edge in favor of the under as well.
We’re getting even odds here, but I’d play to -120 odds. I like the under.
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