Robert Gauthier/Los Angeles Times via Getty Images. Pictured: Clippers F Paul George
It’s been a heck of a run for the Los Angeles Clippers. This is already the best season in franchise history since the Clippers made their first every conference finals and even won a game, but now, yet again, their backs are against the wall. Kawhi Leonard remains out, a third straight deficit has pushed them to the brink down 3-1, and they’re headed back to Phoenix with the season on the line.
So what do these Clippers have left to give? Paul George, Reggie Jackson, and Ivica Zubac have kept the team close all series against the Suns, and tonight we’re playing one prop from each of them.
For those who are new to this article, we’ll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
Below, I have laid out three prop bets that I’m playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Paul George, over 5.5 assists (-141)
| Clippers at Suns | Suns -5.5 |
| Time | TV | 9 p.m. ET | ESPN |
| Best Book | DraftKings |
It’s only fair that we start with Playoff P.
Poor Paul George is on fumes at this point. He has played so many minutes, taken so many shots. George has scored 20 points in every single Clippers playoff game this postseason, now 17 contests and counting. He’s averaging 26.4 points, 9.5 rebounds, and 5.5 assists per game, and though the shooting numbers have waxed and waned, it might be time to retire the Pandemic P moniker for good.
Paul George has been terrific.
He’s stepped it up even further with Kawhi Leonard out. In the six games without Kawhi this postseason, PG is playing 41.8 minutes a game and doing a bit of everything. His rebounds have boomed to 11.0 per game, including 15 and 16 the last two games, and his scoring is up to 29.2 PPG. But his shooting numbers have cratered, likely an effect of all those shots and minutes, so we’re playing the assists angle instead.
George has at least five assists in all six of those games without Leonard, and he’s averaging 6.2 dimes per game in that stretch. He’s gone over 5.5 assists in four of the six, including each of the last three — and remember, that includes that ugly Game 4 when the teams combined to shoot approximately 17% from the field.
George averaged a career high 5.2 APG this season with new and improved passing, and those numbers went up even further in games without Leonard. We’re projecting him at 6.8 assists, so I’ll play the over here even with the juice. I’ll play to -160.
Ivica Zubac, over 10.5 rebounds (-106)
| Clippers at Suns | Suns -5.5 |
| Time | TV | 9 p.m. ET | ESPN |
| Best Book | FanDuel |
Paul George ain’t the only Clipper posting huge rebounding lines lately. Ivica Zubac has had double-digit rebounds in three straight too.
Zubac has had a rough go of it at times this postseason. He got lit up in drop coverage against Luka Doncic and the Mavs in the first round. That earned Zubac a seat on the bench by Game 4, and by the final two games he was playing just a few minutes here and there. It was a similar story in the second round against Utah. Zubac started only once and saw his minutes reduced to almost nil by the end of the series.
This round, though, everything has changed. Zubac came off the bench in Game 1, and the Clippers got lit up by Suns big man Deandre Ayton. Ayton has been one of the breakout stars of the playoffs, and his size dominated this series early.
But that’s why the Clips turned back to Zubac in Game 2, starting him and playing him his highest minutes total of the playoffs. Zubac played 34.4 minutes and racked up 14 points and 11 rebounds, his first playoff double-double, but got dunked on in the final Valley Oop play. Undaunted, the Clippers have kept Zubac out there the last two games, and he’s played well. He had 15 points and 16 rebounds in a Game 3 win, then 13 points and 14 rebounds in a Game 4 loss.
Zubac is averaging 14.0 points and 13.7 rebounds over the past three games, and he’s more than holding his own for LA now. He’s been especially dominant on the offensive glass, with four, six, and seven offensive rebounds over the past three games. And as the tired Clippers continue to see shots come up short, Zu should see plenty of rebounding opportunities. The Clippers need him to hit this number again, and we project him at 12.0 so I’ll play the over to -130.
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And if you really want to get wild, our Props Tool is smashing a bunch of Zubac overs with all these minutes.
We already hit Zubac over 0.5 steals in Game 3 at +475 in this piece. It was his first steal of the playoffs, and he’s had one in two straight now, but that line has faded to +170 at BetMGM so it may no longer be worth the squeeze. I’ll look at a Zubac double-double and maybe even parlay some of his numbers together, but the other line I’m looking at is Zubac to go over 1.5 assists +180 at BetMGM. He averaged an assist every 17.9 minutes in the regular season and had multiple assists in seven of 11 games (64%) with at least 30 minutes played.
Zubac has redeemed himself over this past week of games. Choose your angle and play wisely.
Reggie Jackson under 3.5 3-pointers (-134)
| Clippers at Suns | Suns -5.5 |
| Time | TV | 9 p.m. ET | ESPN |
| Best Book | FanDuel |
With Kawhi Leonard out, Reginald Shon Jackson has stepped up as the Clippers’ second best player.
Jackson was already having a great playoffs even before the Leonard injury, but he’s absolutely exploded since. In six games without Kawhi, Jackson has played 37.6 minutes per game, soaking up as many minutes as he can handle, and the production has followed at 22.5 points, 3.7 rebounds, and 4.0 assists per game.
Jackson is getting a ton of shots up. He’s averaging 17.7 field goal attempts per game during this stretch, with at least 15 in all of them, and about half of those shots have come from beyond the arc. Jackson is averaging 8.5 3-point attempts in this stretch with 3.0 makes. He’s actually at 3.3 makes per game for the playoffs as a starter, with a hotter shooting stroke earlier that has faded a bit as he’s racked up a ton of minutes.
Jackson has made at least three 3s in 14 games already these playoffs, a wild number considering the man didn’t even start the first two postseason games for the Clippers. He’s knocked down 41.6% of his 3s for the playoffs too.
So why in the world are we fading this man?
Well … four 3s are a lot. That’s pretty much it. Even with Jackson taking this many shots, and even with him playing so well and shooting so hot, he’s still gone under 3.5 made 3s in 12 of 17 playoff games, hitting this under 71% of the time. He was also under it in 58 of 67 regular season games, an 87% under hit rate back when life was a bit more normal for him.
Jackson typically tops out around eight 3-point attempts, even in this far bigger role, and that means he might have to make half his treys to go over. That’s just asking too much for a guy who has played massive minutes every two days since late May after not seeing anywhere near this workload all season. I have to fade this high number, and I’ll play the under to -150.
The season is on the line. If Mr. June wants to get one more game in this month, he’s probably going to have to crash our under. I’ll take my chances.
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