Harry How/Getty Images. Pictured: LeBron James
NBA Odds: Lakers vs. Spurs
| Lakers Odds | -5 |
| Spurs Odds | +5 |
| Over/Under | 229.5 |
| PRO Projection | LAL -5 |
| Time | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | FS-SW |
A Cotton Bowl matchup between Florida and Oklahoma might steal a good chunk of its viewers, but Lakers vs. Spurs still has plenty to offer in terms of betting value tonight — at least based on the sharp action it’s attracted.
In fact, three of our PRO Report’s value indicators centered around sharp action have pointed to an edge on this spread. Let’s take a look.
Note: Odds, data as of 11:30 a.m. ET.
NBA Sharp Betting Pick: Lakers vs. Spurs
LeBron James’s status is still in question for this game, but that hasn’t stopped sharps from making early moves.
From an opening number of +6.5, the Spurs have fallen down to +5 (right in line with our projection) thanks to some big bets from sharps. And one of our PRO Systems suggests that history is on the side of teams that bring in this sort of action.
Sharp Action
The Lakers’ line falling while 81% of bettors are laying the points should tell you pretty much all you need to know about the other 19%. And Action Labs confirms the implication.
Four Bet Signals have been triggered on San Antonio, revealing four instances of market movement caused specifically by sharp action.
Sharp Action edge: Spurs
Big Money
Also giving oddsmakers reason to pull this line away from the popular side, the bet and money distributions are almost exact opposites. In other words, the 19% of bettors on the Spurs have generated 82% of the money landing on this spread.
Of course that faces sportsbooks with a monetary liability, but perhaps more importantly (for the sake of reading sharp action) it reveals that bigger bettors — who are more likely to be sharps — are taking the points.
Big Money edge: Spurs
PRO Systems
And given their substantial discrepancy between bets and money, the Spurs easily fit into our PRO System, NBA Tickets vs. Money, which has returned a 55% win rate against the spread on a sample of more than 600 games.
PRO Systems edge: Spurs