Mavericks vs. Nuggets Odds

Mavericks Odds	+1.5
Nuggets Odds	-1.5
Moneyline	+104 / -124
Over/Under	226
Time	Saturday | 10 p.m. ET
TV	NBA TV
Odds as of Saturday morning and via PointsBet.

The Denver Nuggets host the Dallas Mavericks on Saturday in what should be an exciting matchup between two surging squads in the Western Conference.

Both teams have gained momentum as of late, with the Nuggets on a five-game-winning streak and the Mavericks triumphing in 11 of their last 15 contests. After underperforming for the first half of the season, both are poised for a strong second halves in their respective campaigns.

The Mavericks gave their two stars — Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis — the night off in their loss against the Oklahoma City Thunder on the second game of a back-to-back set.

As for the Nuggets, they return home to play in the second game of a back-to-back after squeaking out a one-point win over the Memphis Grizzlies on Friday.

Given the situational spot where the Nuggets might be a bit fatigued after a competitive game the evening before and having to travel cross country, I see an opportunity to seize value on the underdog Mavericks.

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Dallas Mavericks

After a sluggish start to the season, the Mavericks are finally piecing things together. Porzingis has been healthy, which has done wonders opening up their offense.

Since the beginning of February, Dallas has looked more like the team of last season. The Mavericks have the fourth-highest 3-point attempts as Percent of Field Goals Attempted (45.6%), plus they’re connecting at the 11th-highest three-point percentage (37.7%), per NBA Advanced Stats. During this time, they’re  also ranked fifth in Offensive Rating (117.4) in the league.

Over the last several games, head coach Rick Carlisle has started Porzingis and Maxi Kleber together in the front court. Both are excellent outside shooters and can really make life difficult for opposing defenses.

With Kleber moving into the starting lineup, Tim Hardaway Jr. has been coming off the bench and providing a spark of instant offense against their opponents’ second units. Reserve Jalen Brunson has also proven to be a reliable scorer.

Dallas was really missing a sharpshooter like Seth Curry to begin the season, but Brunson has shown he can fill the void, shooting 53.7% from the field and 40.8% from behind the arc.

The Nuggets are allowing 54.3% in Effective Field Goal percentage, ranking 21st in the league. Although the Nuggets’ defense has looked a lot sharper lately, I think their tired legs will give the Mavericks offense an edge to capitalize. Hardaway and Brunson should really have some nice opportunities against the Nuggets below-average reserves.

All players who missed games to COVID-19 issues have returned and been productive, particularly Josh Richardson. His presence has been missed on the defensive end and as a secondary ballhandler outside of Luka Doncic.

Perhaps their time off was a blessing in disguise, as it gave other bench players opportunities to adapt to the system and build chemistry, which helped develop more depth on the Mavericks’ roster.

Since the 2017-2018 season, the Mavericks are 14-6 against the spread when they play their first game following a back-to-back series on the road, per the Sports Data Query Language database. Dallas is not a great team on back-to-backs; however, the statistics show it tends to bounce back and perform well the game afterward.

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Denver Nuggets

Denver’s offense has really been on a roll in the last several games. During their five-game winning streak, the Nuggets have a league-leading Net Rating (15.4), per NBA Advanced Stats.

The offense revolves around Nikola Jokic, who is close to averaging a triple-double. Teams have been struggling to stop the versatile big man’s offensive arsenal that destroys teams in the paint, but he can also spread the floor with his excellent shooting. Jokic’s most impressive qualities are his passing skill and ability to set up the offense.

However, the Nuggets are facing a Mavericks team whose defense has really benefited from Porzingis’s return. Since the start of February, Dallas is ranked fifth in Defensive Rating. Having a mobile big man like Porzingis would be ideal to contain a center like Jokic that can do a little bit of everything.

The Nuggets have really done an impressive job of improving their defense. Although they’re ranked 14th in Defensive Rating (111.0) for the whole season, they’re third in the league (104.1) in their last five games. However, I see that defense suffering from fatigue against the efficient Mavericks’ offense.

Since the 2014-2015 season, when Denver is at home and on the second game of a back-to-back, it’s 6-18-1 ATS (25.0%), per our Bet Labs tool. This is active to fade the Nuggets, as they tend to have a letdown spot on the second game of a back-to-back, particularly at home.

Since the 2012-2013 season, home favorites on the second game of a back-to-back where they won their previous game by fewer than three points have gone 9-19 ATS (32.1%), per the SDQL database. Here is another angle to fade Denver, as these teams tend to come out flat after a tough win the prior night.

Mavericks-Nuggets Pick

The Mavericks are 5-1 ATS on the road in their last six games against the Nuggets, and I look for that trend to continue.

This should be a fun and close matchup, but I believe Dallas holds the edge with its rested stars against Denver’s fatigued team in the second game of a back-to-back set.

I am looking forward to the inevitable Doncic-Jamal Murray shootout in the fourth quarter, where I believe the Mavericks can prevail.

At the time of this publishing, the Mavericks are a short +1.5 underdog and I recommend a pick on the Mavericks moneyline at plus odds.

Pick: Mavericks +105

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